Physical modeling experiments to study periodic activation of faults in seismic zones

Our study aimed to find a mechanism that controls preparation and subsequent full seismic activation of large faults that may act as sources of strong earthquakes. A large fault was physically modeled to investigate the dynamics of its deformation. The experiments were conducted on elastoviscoplastic and elastic models of the lithosphere. A digital camera was used to capture images in the course of the modeling experiments. The digital image correlation method (DIC) detected the moments of impulse activation and displacements along the entire fault or its major segment. Between the activation moments, the fault structure consists of segments, including active ones. Activation is directional and involves a few large segments of the fault, then numerous small ruptures, and the latter are gradually degenerating. The long-term deformation dynamics of the fault is represented by a regular sequence of its full activations. In most cases, each moment of activation correlates with a minimum dip angle of the repeatability curve (β) and a maximum value of information entropy (S_i). We analysed in detail the deformation dynamics of the fault and in its wings between two full activation that occurred in a regular pattern, including the phases of regression and progression of the deformation process. The analysis revealed two similar scenarios in the evolution of the active segments and plastic micro slip faults within the active segments. In some intervals of time, deformation takes place considerably differently on the segments and the plastic micro slip faults. Such differences suggest that in the studies attempting to statistically predict and assess a large and potentially seismically hazardous fault zone, this zone should be considered spatially subdivided into a central narrow subzone (including the main fault plane) and two wide subzones framing the fault wings. According to our physical modeling results, the central subzone can be up to10 km wide, and the total width of all the subzones can amount to100 km or more. This study contributes to the development of the concepts of geodynamics of large faults in the seismic zones of the lithosphere and investigates one of the possible mechanisms preparing strong earthquakes in the seismic zones.

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