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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">gtcrust</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Геодинамика и тектонофизика</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Geodynamics &amp; Tectonophysics</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="epub">2078-502X</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Institute of the Earth's crust of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.5800/GT-2018-9-4-0392</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">gtcrust-678</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>СОВРЕМЕННАЯ ГЕОДИНАМИКА</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>RECENT GEODYNAMICS</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>ВАРИАЦИИ 234U/238U В ПОДЗЕМНЫХ ВОДАХ МОНДИНСКОГО ПОЛИГОНА КАК ОТКЛИКИ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЙ НА ОКОНЧАНИИ ТУНКИНСКОЙ ДОЛИНЫ В БАЙКАЛЬСКОЙ РИФТОВОЙ СИСТЕМЕ</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>THE 234U/238U VARIATIONS IN GROUNDWATER FROM THE MONDY AREA IN RESPONSE TO EARTHQUAKES AT THE TERMINATION OF THE TUNKA VALLEY IN THE BAIKAL RIFT SYSTEM</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Рассказов</surname><given-names>С. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Рассказов</surname><given-names>S. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Сергей Васильевич Рассказов - доктор геолого-минералогических наук, профессор, зав. лабораторией.</p><p>664033, Иркутск, ул. Лермонтова, 128; 664003, Иркутск, ул. Ленина, 3</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Sergei V. Rasskazov - Doctor of Geology and Mineralogy, Professor, Head of Laboratory.</p><p>128 Lermontov street, Irkutsk 664033; 3 Lenin street, Irkutsk 664003</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">rassk@crust.irk.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Ильясова</surname><given-names>А. М.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Ilyasova</surname><given-names>A. M.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Айгуль Маратовна Ильясова - кандидат геолого-миралогических наук.</p><p>664033, Иркутск, ул. Лермонтова, 128</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Aigul M. Ilyasova - Candidate of Geology and Mineralogy.</p><p>128 Lermontovstreet, Irkutsk 664033</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">ila@crust.irk.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-2"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Чувашова</surname><given-names>И. С.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Chuvashova</surname><given-names>I. S.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Ирина Сергеевна Чувашова - кандидат геолого-миралогических наук, старший научный сотрудник.</p><p>664033, Иркутск, ул. Лермонтова, 128; 664003, Иркутск, ул. Ленина, 3</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Irina S. Chuvashova - Candidate of Geology and Mineralogy, Senior Researcher.</p><p>128 Lermontov street, Irkutsk 664033; 3 Lenin street, Irkutsk 664003</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">chuvashova@crust.irk.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Чебыкин</surname><given-names>Е. П.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Chebykin</surname><given-names>E. P.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Евгений Павлович Чебыкин - канд. хим. наук, старший научный сотрудник.</p><p>664033, Иркутск, ул. Лермонтова, 128; 664033, Иркутск, ул. Улан-Баторская, 3</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Eugene P. Chebykin - Candidate of Chemistry, Senior Researcher.</p><p>128 Lermontov street, Irkutsk 664033; 3 Ulan-Batorskaya street, Irkutsk 664033</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">cheb@lin.irk.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-3"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт земной кор, СО РАН; Иркутский государственный университет</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Institute of the Earth's Crust, Siberian Branch of RAS; Irkutsk State University</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-2"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт земной кор, СО РАН</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Institute of the Earth's Crust, Siberian Branch of RAS</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><aff-alternatives id="aff-3"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Институт земной кор, СО РАН; Лимнологический институт, СО РАН</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Institute of the Earth's Crust, Siberian Branch of RAS; Limnological Institute, Siberian Branch of RAS</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2018</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>08</day><month>12</month><year>2018</year></pub-date><volume>9</volume><issue>4</issue><fpage>1217</fpage><lpage>1234</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Рассказов С.В., Ильясова А.М., Чувашова И.С., Чебыкин Е.П., 2018</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2018</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Рассказов С.В., Ильясова А.М., Чувашова И.С., Чебыкин Е.П.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Рассказов S.V., Ilyasova A.M., Chuvashova I.S., Chebykin E.P.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.gt-crust.ru/jour/article/view/678">https://www.gt-crust.ru/jour/article/view/678</self-uri><abstract><p>Высокие отношения активностей 234U/238U (ОА4/8), выявленные в подземных водах Еловско-Култукской и Ниловско-Мондинской инверсионных секций окончаний Тункинской долины, совпадают с участками концентрации землетрясений. Для обоснования подхода к прогнозу землетрясений на западном окончании долины были определены пространственные вариации этого параметра в природных водах и его временные вариации в 2013–2017 гг. в водах скважины Mon‐D в Мондинской впадине. Задокументированное ступенчатое снижение значений ОА4/8 в воде этой скважины, одновременно с подготовкой и реализацией землетрясения с энергетическим классом К=13.9 на севере оз. Хубсугул, отразило последовательное закрытие трещин, препятствовавшее проникновению глубинных вод в Тумелик-Мондинской асейсмичной зоне. В подземных водах ее восточного окончания, в районе пос. Култук, снижение значений ОА4/8 сменялось их резким возрастанием и переходом к малоамплитудным вариациям. Соответственно закрытие трещин сменялось открытием, способствовавшим циркуляции глубинных вод и реализации землетрясений. Нивелирование Мондинской аномалии Тумелик-Мондинской асейсмичной зоны с продолжением активности Туранской и Ниловской аномалий внутренней части Ниловско-Мондинской секции подчеркнуло ее особую роль как связующего звена между Хубсугульским сегментом радиальных рифтов, образовавшихся во фронте Хангайского орогена, и наиболее крупной центральной впадиной Тункинской долины. Проявление Култукской, Зактуйской и Северо-Торской аномалий ОА4/8 и землетрясений по периферии Еловско-Култукской секции обозначило границы Хамардабанского литосферного блока, расплющенного у края фундамента Сибирской платформы.</p></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><p>High 234U/238U activity ratio (AR4/8), identified in groundwater from the Elovka-Kultuk and Nilovka-Mondy inversion sections of the Tunka Valley, coincide with areas of earthquake concentrations. In order to substantiate an approach to earthquake prediction, spatial variations of this parameter were determined in natural water at the western termination of the valley and its temporal variations were monitored in water from the Mon-D well in the Mondy basin in 2013–2017. A recorded gradual decrease of AR4/8 values in water of this well, coeval with preparation and implementation of an earthquake with the energy class K=13.9 in the north of lake Khövsgöl, reflected crack closure that prevented deep water penetration in the Tumelik-Mondy aseismic zone. At the eastern termination of the valley, near the Kultuk village, decreasing AR4/8 values in groundwater were followed with their sharp increasing and transition to low-amplitude variations. Accordingly, crack closing was followed with their opening that facilitated the circulation of deep water and provided seismic events. Leveling of the Mondy anomaly in the Tumelik-Mondy aseismic zone, accompanied by a continuous activity of the Turan and Nilovka anomalies within the Nilovka-Mondy section, emphasized a specific role of the latter as an intermediate chain between the Khövsgöl segment of radial rifts, originated in front of the Hangay orogen, and the largest central basin of the Tunka Valley. The Kultuk, Zaktuy, and North-Tory AR4/8 and earthquake anomalies denoted boundaries of the Elovka-Kultuk section in the Khamardaban lithospheric block flattened at the edge of the Siberian platform basement.</p></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>Байкал</kwd><kwd>активный разлом</kwd><kwd>прогноз землетрясений</kwd><kwd>подземные воды</kwd><kwd>234U/238U</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>Baikal</kwd><kwd>active faults</kwd><kwd>earthquake prediction</kwd><kwd>groundwater</kwd><kwd>234U/238U</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Государственный проект Института земной коры № 0346-2016-0005</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Arzhannikova A.V., Melnikova V.I., Radziminovich N.A., 2007. Late Quaternary and current deformation in the western Tunka system. 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