gtcrustГеодинамика и тектонофизикаGeodynamics & Tectonophysics2078-502XInstitute of the Earth's crust of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch10.5800/GT-2018-9-3-0367gtcrust-620Research ArticleТЕКТОНОФИЗИКАTECTONOPHYSICSЛАБОРАТОРНЫЕ ИССЛЕДОВАНИЯ ПРОЦЕССА СКОЛЬЖЕНИЯ ПО РАЗЛОМУ КАК ФИЗИЧЕСКАЯ ОСНОВА НОВОГО ПОДХОДА К КРАТКОСРОЧНОМУ ПРОГНОЗУ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЙLABORATORY STUDIES OF SLIP ALONG FAULTS AS A PHYSICAL BASIS FOR A NEW APPROACH TO SHORT-TERM EARTHQUAKE PREDICTIONКочарянГ. Г.KocharyanG. G.

Геворг Грантович Кочарян, докт. физ.-мат. наук, профессор, заведующий лабораторией Института динамики геосфер РАН

119334, Москва, Ленинский проспект, 38, корпус 1; 141701, Долгопрудный, Институтский пер., 9

Gevorg G. Kocharyan, Doctor of Physics and Mathematics, Professor, Head of Laboratory 

38 Leninsky prospect, Building 1, Moscow 119334; 9 Institutskiy per., Dolgoprudny 141701

gevorgk@idg.chph.ras.ruБатухтинИ. В.BatukhtinI. V.

Иван Вячеславович Батухтин, м.н.с., аспирант 

119334, Москва, Ленинский проспект, 38, корпус 1; 141701, Долгопрудный, Институтский пер., 9

Ivan V. Batukhtin, Junior Researcher, Postgraduate Student 

38 Leninsky prospect, Building 1, Moscow 119334; 9 Institutskiy per., Dolgoprudny 141701

batukhtin@phystech.eduИнститут динамики геосфер РАН; Московский физико-технический институт (государственный университет)РоссияInstitute of Geosphere Dynamics of RAS; Moscow Institute of Physics and Technology (State University)Russian Federation20180810201893671691Copyright © Кочарян Г.Г., Батухтин И.В., 20182018Кочарян Г.Г., Батухтин И.В.Kocharyan G.G., Batukhtin I.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.gt-crust.ru/jour/article/view/620

Рассмотрены некоторые результаты исследований в условиях лаборатории физических эффектов, которые могут оказаться полезными для развития новых подходов к краткосрочному прогнозу землетрясений. Одной из основных задач сейсмологии и механики очага землетрясения является поиск признаков готовящегося события, которые могут быть надежно зарегистрированы инструментально. В этой связи наилучшим результатом лабораторных исследований процесса динамического скольжения по разлому является установление макроскопических параметров, контролирующих деформационный процесс, которые, в свою очередь, могут быть измерены в натурных условиях. Возможно, что подходящим параметром является динамическая жесткость разломной зоны. Судя по результатам лабораторных экспериментов последних лет, величина этого параметра определяет тип скольжения по разлому – неустойчивое скольжение, крип, тремор и т.д. При этом величина сдвиговой жесткости радикально снижается в процессе приближения разломной зоны к метастабильному состоянию. Обнаруженный в лаборатории эффект дает основания полагать, что изменения напряженно-деформированного состояния разломной зоны на заключительной стадии подготовки землетрясения могут быть обнаружены при анализе параметров низкочастотного микросейсмического шума. По-видимому, одним из наиболее благоприятных для определения значений, характерных для изучаемого региона, является участок записи во время и после прохождения поверхностных волн от далеких землетрясений. Эти колебания с периодом в несколько десятков секунд обладают значительной амплитудой и длительностью, что способствует возбуждению резонансных колебаний блоков. Целый ряд важных вопросов требует дополнительной проработки именно в лабораторном эксперименте: оценка характерного размера, определяющего закономерности снижения собственной частоты системы блок–разлом, соотношение механических параметров разлома в зоне нуклеации и на периферии будущего разрыва и т.д. Выполненный анализ результатов экспериментальных исследований разных авторов позволяет заключить, что лабораторные эксперименты, проводимые при нормальных условиях и небольших давлениях, в состоянии дать ответ на ряд принципиальных вопросов, которые необходимо решить на пути к созданию нового подхода к краткосрочному прогнозу землетрясений. Повышение давления и температуры до значений, характерных для сейсмогенных глубин, не приводит к появлению принципиально новых черт в поведении системы блок–разлом на стадии подготовки динамического срыва. Эффекты снижения трения из-за плавления, физико-химических преобразований поверхности скольжения на микро- и наноуровне и других процессов не играют решительно никакой роли на стадии подготовки динамического срыва и начала скольжения.

The physical effects that may prove useful for developing a new approach to short-term earthquake prediction have been studied in laboratory conditions. In seismology and earthquake foci mechanics, one of the major challenges is searching for indicators of an upcoming seismic event and attempting to reliably record such indicators by available instruments. In this regard, the best result of the laboratory studies of dynamic slip along faults would be the identification of specific macroscopic parameters controlling the deformation process, which are measurable in field. Dynamic stiffness of a fault zone seems to be an appropriate parameter. The recent laboratory experiments have shown that the value of this parameter predetermines the slip mode along the fault (unstable slip, creep, tremor, etc.), and a radical decrease in shear stiffness takes place as the fault zone reaches the metastable state. The effect discovered in the laboratory conditions gives grounds to suggest that changes in the stress-strain state of the fault zone at the final stage of earthquake preparation are detectable from the parameters of microseismic noise in the low-frequency range. Apparently, the noise records during and after the arrival of surface waves from distant earthquakes can provide the best opportunity for determining the parameters characterizing the study area. The wave oscillations with a period of a few dozen seconds have significant amplitudes and duration, which contributes to the excitation of resonance oscillations of the blocks. There are problems requiring additional laboratory experiments: estimating the size of a fault, which predetermines regularities in decreasing of the own frequency of the block-fault system; determining the ratio of the mechanical parameters of the fault in the nucleation zone and on the periphery of the future rupture, etc. Having analyzed the results of experimental studies carried out by other researchers, we conclude that laboratory experiments under normal conditions and low pressures can successfully address a number of fundamental issues on the way to creating a new approach to short-term earthquake prediction. Increasing pressure and temperature to values characteristic of seismogenic depths does not lead to the occurrence of any fundamentally new features in the behavior of the block-fault system at the stage when dynamic slip is being prepared. During slip, friction reduces due to melting, physical and chemical transformations at the micro- and nanoscales and other processes on the slipping surface, but these effects play no role at the stage when dynamic rock failure and the onset of slip are being prepared.

землетрясениепредвестникразломсейсмический шумдинамическая жесткостьпассивный сейсмический мониторингearthquakeprecursorfaultseismic ambient noisedynamic stiffnesspassive seismic monitoringРФФИ (проект № 16-05-00694)ReferencesAdushkin V.V., Kocharyan G.G., Novikov V.A., 2016a. Study of fault slip modes. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth 52 (5), 637–647. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351316050013.Adushkin V.V., Kocharyan G.G., Novikov V.A., 2016a. Study of fault slip modes. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth 52 (5), 637–647. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351316050013.Adushkin V.V., Kocharyan G.G., Ostapchuk A.A., 2016b. Parameters determining the portion of energy radiated during dynamic unloading of a section of rock massif. Doklady Earth Sciences 467 (1), 275–279. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X16030016.Adushkin V.V., Kocharyan G.G., Ostapchuk A.A., 2016b. Parameters determining the portion of energy radiated during dynamic unloading of a section of rock massif. Doklady Earth Sciences 467 (1), 275–279. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X16030016.Adushkin V.V., Kocharyan G.G., Ostapchuk A.A., Pavlov D.V., 2016c. Precursors of dynamic failure on a tectonic fault. Doklady Earth Sciences 470 (2), 1100–1103. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X16100184.Adushkin V.V., Kocharyan G.G., Ostapchuk A.A., Pavlov D.V., 2016c. Precursors of dynamic failure on a tectonic fault. Doklady Earth Sciences 470 (2), 1100–1103. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X16100184.Anthony J.L., Marone C., 2005. Influence of particle characteristics on granular friction. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 110 (B8), B08409. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JB003399.Anthony J.L., Marone C., 2005. Influence of particle characteristics on granular friction. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 110 (B8), B08409. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004JB003399.Борняков С.А., Семинский К.Ж., Буддо В.Ю., Мирошниченко А.И., Черемных А.В., Черемных А.С., Тарасова А.А. Основные закономерности разломообразования в литосфере и их прикладные следствия (по результатам физического моделирования) // Геодинамика и тектонофизика. 2014. Т. 5. № 4. С. 823–861. https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2014-5-4-0159.Bornyakov S.A., Seminsky K.Z., Buddo V.Y., Miroshnichenko A.I., Cheremnykh A.V., Cheremnykh A.S., Tarasova A.A., 2014. Main regularities of faulting in lithosphere and their application (based on physical modelling results). Geodynamics & Tectonophysics 5 (4), 823–861 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2014-5-4-0159.Boulton C., Moore D.E., Lockner D.A., Toy V.G., Townend J., Sutherland R., 2014. Frictional properties of exhumed fault gouges in DFDP-1 cores, Alpine fault, New Zealand. Geophysical Research Letters 41 (2), 356–362. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058236.Boulton C., Moore D.E., Lockner D.A., Toy V.G., Townend J., Sutherland R., 2014. Frictional properties of exhumed fault gouges in DFDP-1 cores, Alpine fault, New Zealand. Geophysical Research Letters 41 (2), 356–362. https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058236.Boutelier D., Chemenda A., 2011. Physical modeling of Arc–continent collision: a review of 2D, 3D, purely mechanical and thermo-mechanical experimental models. In: D. Brown, P.D. Ryan (Eds.), Arc-continent collision. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, p. 445–473. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-88558-0_16.Boutelier D., Chemenda A., 2011. Physical modeling of Arc–continent collision: a review of 2D, 3D, purely mechanical and thermo-mechanical experimental models. In: D. Brown, P.D. Ryan (Eds.), Arc-continent collision. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, p. 445–473. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-540-88558-0_16.Brantut N., Schubnel A., Rouzaud J.-N., Brunet F., Shimamoto T., 2008. High-velocity frictional properties of a clay bearing, fault gouge and implications for earthquake mechanics. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 113 (B10), B10401. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JB005551.Brantut N., Schubnel A., Rouzaud J.-N., Brunet F., Shimamoto T., 2008. High-velocity frictional properties of a clay bearing, fault gouge and implications for earthquake mechanics. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 113 (B10), B10401. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JB005551.Brodsky E.E., Kanamori H., 2000. Elastohydrodynamic lubrication of faults. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 106 (B8), 16357–16374. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JB000430.Brodsky E.E., Kanamori H., 2000. Elastohydrodynamic lubrication of faults. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 106 (B8), 16357–16374. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JB000430.Byerlee J.D., 1978. Friction of rocks. Pure and Applied Geophysics 116 (4–5), 615–626. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00876528.Byerlee J.D., 1978. Friction of rocks. Pure and Applied Geophysics 116 (4–5), 615–626. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00876528.Чебров В.Н., Салтыков В.А., Серафимова Ю.К. Прогнозирование землетрясений на Камчатке. М.: Светоч Плюс, 2011. 304 с.Chebrov V.N., Saltykov V.A., Serafimova Yu.K., 2011. Earthquake Forecasting in Kamchatka. Svetoch Plus, Moscow, 304 p. (in Russian).Chen W.-Y., Lovell C.W., Haley G.M., Pyrak-Nolte L.J., 1993. Variation of shear-wave amplitude during frictional sliding. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences & Geomechanics Abstracts 30 (7), 779–784. https://doi.org/10.1016/0148-9062(93)90022-6.Chen W.-Y., Lovell C.W., Haley G.M., Pyrak-Nolte L.J., 1993. Variation of shear-wave amplitude during frictional sliding. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences & Geomechanics Abstracts 30 (7), 779–784. https://doi.org/10.1016/0148-9062(93)90022-6.Di Toro G., Han R., Hirose T., De Paola N., Nielsen S., Mizoguchi K., Ferri F., Cocco M., Shimamoto T., 2011. Fault lubrication during earthquakes. Nature 471 (7339), 494–498. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09838.Di Toro G., Han R., Hirose T., De Paola N., Nielsen S., Mizoguchi K., Ferri F., Cocco M., Shimamoto T., 2011. Fault lubrication during earthquakes. Nature 471 (7339), 494–498. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature09838.Di Toro G., Hirose T., Nielsen S., Pennacchioni G., Shimamoto T., 2006. Natural and experimental evidence of melt lubrication of faults during earthquakes. Science 311 (5761), 647–649. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1121012.Di Toro G., Hirose T., Nielsen S., Pennacchioni G., Shimamoto T., 2006. Natural and experimental evidence of melt lubrication of faults during earthquakes. Science 311 (5761), 647–649. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1121012.Добровольский И.П. Теория подготовки тектонического землетрясения. М.: Наука, 1991. 218 с.Dobrovolsky I.P., 1991. The Theory of Tectonic Earthquake Preparation. Nauka, Moscow, 218 p. (in Russian).Grawinkel A., Stockhert B., 1997. Hydrostatic pore fluid pressure to 9km depth-fluid inclusion evidence from KTB deep drill hole. Geophysical Research Letters 24 (24), 3273–3276. https://doi.org/10.1029/97GL03309.Grawinkel A., Stockhert B., 1997. Hydrostatic pore fluid pressure to 9km depth-fluid inclusion evidence from KTB deep drill hole. Geophysical Research Letters 24 (24), 3273–3276. https://doi.org/10.1029/97GL03309.Hedayat A., Pyrak-Nolte L.J., Bobet A., 2014. Precursors to the shear failure of rock discontinuities. Geophysical Research Letters 41 (15), 5467–5475. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060848.Hedayat A., Pyrak-Nolte L.J., Bobet A., 2014. Precursors to the shear failure of rock discontinuities. Geophysical Research Letters 41 (15), 5467–5475. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL060848.Kasahara K., 1981. Earthquake Mechanics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 272 p.Kasahara K., 1981. Earthquake Mechanics. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 272 p.Kato A., Ohnaka M., Mochizuki H., 2003. Constitutive properties for the shear failure of intact granite in seismogenic environments. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 108 (B1), 2060. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JB000791.Kato A., Ohnaka M., Mochizuki H., 2003. Constitutive properties for the shear failure of intact granite in seismogenic environments. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 108 (B1), 2060. https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JB000791.Kirkpatrick J.D., Rowe C.D., White J.C., Brodsky E.E., 2013. Silica gel formation during fault slip: Evidence from the rock record. Geology 41 (9), 1015–1018. https://doi.org/10.1130/G34483.1.Kirkpatrick J.D., Rowe C.D., White J.C., Brodsky E.E., 2013. Silica gel formation during fault slip: Evidence from the rock record. Geology 41 (9), 1015–1018. https://doi.org/10.1130/G34483.1.Киссин И.Г. Флюиды в земной коре. Геофизические и тектонические аспекты. М.: Наука, 2015. 328 с.Kissin I.G., 2015. Fluids in the Earth Crust. Geophysical and Tectonic Aspects. Nauka, Moscow, 328 p. (in Russian).Кочарян Г.Г. Масштабный эффект в сейсмотектонике // Геодинамика и тектонофизика. 2014. Т. 5. № 2. С. 353–385. https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2014-5-2-0133.Kocharyan G.G., 2014. Scale effect in seismotectonics. Geodynamics & Tectonophysics 5 (2), 353–385 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2014-5-2-0133.Кочарян Г.Г. Геомеханика разломов. М.: ГЕОС, 2016. 432 с.Kocharyan G.G., 2016. Geomechanics of Faults. GEOS, Moscow, 432 p. (in Russian).Kocharyan G.G., Novikov V.A., 2016. Experimental study of different modes of block sliding along interface. Part 1. Laboratory experiments. Physical Mesomechanics 19https://elibrary.ru/contents.asp?issueid=1624546&selid=27120130 (2), 189–199. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1029959916020120.Kocharyan G.G., Novikov V.A., 2016. Experimental study of different modes of block sliding along interface. Part 1. Laboratory experiments. Physical Mesomechanics 19https://elibrary.ru/contents.asp?issueid=1624546&selid=27120130 (2), 189–199. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1029959916020120.Kocharyan G.G., Ostapchuk A.A., 2011.Variations in rupture zone stiffness during a seismic cycle. Doklady Earth Sciences 441 (1), 1591–1594. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X11110250.Kocharyan G.G., Ostapchuk A.A., 2011.Variations in rupture zone stiffness during a seismic cycle. Doklady Earth Sciences 441 (1), 1591–1594. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X11110250.Kocharyan G.G., Ostapchuk A.A., 2015. The influence of viscosity of thin fluid films on the frictional interaction mechanism of rock blocks. Doklady Earth Sciences 463 (1), 757–759. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X15070168.Kocharyan G.G., Ostapchuk A.A., 2015. The influence of viscosity of thin fluid films on the frictional interaction mechanism of rock blocks. Doklady Earth Sciences 463 (1), 757–759. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X15070168.Kocharyan G.G., Ostapchuk A.A., Pavlov D.V., Budkov A.M., 2018. About the perspective of detection of earthquake preparation process in the spectrum of seismic noise. Laboratory experiment. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth 54 (6) (in press).Kocharyan G.G., Ostapchuk A.A., Pavlov D.V., Budkov A.M., 2018. About the perspective of detection of earthquake preparation process in the spectrum of seismic noise. Laboratory experiment. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth 54 (6) (in press).Кочарян Г.Г., Спивак А.А. Динамика деформирования блочных массивов пород. М.: Академкнига, 2003. 423 с.Kocharyan G.G., Spivak A.A., 2003. Dynamics of Deformation of Rock Blocks. Akademkniga, Moscow, 423 p. (in Russian).Lyubushin A.A., 2014a. Analysis of coherence in global seismic noise for 1997–2012. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth 50 (3), 325–333. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351314030069.Lyubushin A.A., 2014a. Analysis of coherence in global seismic noise for 1997–2012. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth 50 (3), 325–333. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351314030069.Lyubushin A.A., 2014b. Dynamic estimate of seismic danger based on multifractal properties of low-frequency seismic noise. Natural Hazards 70 (1), 471–483. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0823-7.Lyubushin A.A., 2014b. Dynamic estimate of seismic danger based on multifractal properties of low-frequency seismic noise. Natural Hazards 70 (1), 471–483. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-013-0823-7.Marone C., 1998. Laboratory derived friction laws and their application to seismic faulting. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 26, 643–696. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.26.1.643.Marone C., 1998. Laboratory derived friction laws and their application to seismic faulting. Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sciences 26, 643–696. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev.earth.26.1.643.Marti S., Stünitz H., Heilbronner R., Plümper O., Drury M., 2017. Experimental investigation of the brittle-viscous transition in mafic rocks – Interplay between fracturing, reaction, and viscous deformation. Journal of Structural Geology 105, 62–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2017.10.011.Marti S., Stünitz H., Heilbronner R., Plümper O., Drury M., 2017. Experimental investigation of the brittle-viscous transition in mafic rocks – Interplay between fracturing, reaction, and viscous deformation. Journal of Structural Geology 105, 62–79. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsg.2017.10.011.Медведев В.Я., Иванова Л.А., Лысов Б.А., Ружич В.В., Марчук М.В. Экспериментальное изучение декомпрессии, проницаемости и залечивания силикатных пород в зонах разломов // Геодинамика и тектонофизика. 2014. Т. 5. № 4. С. 905–917. https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2014-5-4-0162.Medvedev V.Y., Ivanova L.A., Lysov B.A., Ruzhich V.V., Marchuk M.V., 2014. Experimental study of decompression, permeability and healing of silicate rocks in fault zones. Geodynamics & Tectonophysics 5 (4), 905–917 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2014-5-4-0162.Mjachkin V.I., Brace W.F., Sobolev G.A., Dieterich J.H., 1975. Two models for earthquake forerunners. Pure and Applied Geophysics 113 (1), 169–181. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01592908.Mjachkin V.I., Brace W.F., Sobolev G.A., Dieterich J.H., 1975. Two models for earthquake forerunners. Pure and Applied Geophysics 113 (1), 169–181. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF01592908.Moore D.E., Lockner D.A., Ma Shengli, Summers R., Byerlee J.D., 1997. Strengths of serpentinite gouges at elevated temperatures. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 102 (B7), 14787–14801. https://doi.org/10.1029/97JB00995.Moore D.E., Lockner D.A., Ma Shengli, Summers R., Byerlee J.D., 1997. Strengths of serpentinite gouges at elevated temperatures. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 102 (B7), 14787–14801. https://doi.org/10.1029/97JB00995.Moore D.E., Summers R., Byerlee J.D., 1983. Strengths of clay and nonclay fault gouges at elevated temperatures and pressures. In: Proceedings of the 24th US Symposium on Rock Mechanics, p. 489–500.Moore D.E., Summers R., Byerlee J.D., 1983. Strengths of clay and nonclay fault gouges at elevated temperatures and pressures. In: Proceedings of the 24th US Symposium on Rock Mechanics, p. 489–500.Morrow C.A., Moore D.E., Lockner D.A., 2000. The effect of mineral bond strength and adsorbed water on fault gouge frictional strength. Geophysical Research Letters 27 (6), 815–818. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL008401.Morrow C.A., Moore D.E., Lockner D.A., 2000. The effect of mineral bond strength and adsorbed water on fault gouge frictional strength. Geophysical Research Letters 27 (6), 815–818. https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL008401.Nikolaevskiy V.N., 1996. Geomechanics and Fluidodynamics: With Applications to Reservoir Engineering. Springer, Berlin, 328 p. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8709-9.Nikolaevskiy V.N., 1996. Geomechanics and Fluidodynamics: With Applications to Reservoir Engineering. Springer, Berlin, 328 p. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/978-94-015-8709-9.Noda H., 2008. Frictional constitutive law at intermediate slip rates accounting for flash heating and thermally activated slip process. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 113 (B9), B09302. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JB005406.Noda H., 2008. Frictional constitutive law at intermediate slip rates accounting for flash heating and thermally activated slip process. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 113 (B9), B09302. https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JB005406.Numelin T., Marone C., Kirby E., 2007. Frictional properties of natural fault gouge from a low-angle normal fault, Panamint Valley, California. Tectonics 26 (2), TC2004. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005TC001916.Numelin T., Marone C., Kirby E., 2007. Frictional properties of natural fault gouge from a low-angle normal fault, Panamint Valley, California. Tectonics 26 (2), TC2004. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005TC001916.Ohnaka M., 2013. The Physics of Rock Failure and Earthquakes. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 270 p. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139342865.Ohnaka M., 2013. The Physics of Rock Failure and Earthquakes. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 270 p. https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139342865.Panza G., Kossobokov V.G., Peresan A., Nekrasova A., 2014. Why are the standard probabilistic methods of estimating seismic hazard and risks too often wrong. In: M. Wyss, J.F. Shroder (Eds.), Earthquake hazard, risk and disasters. Elsevier, Amsterdam, p. 309–357. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-394848-9.00012-2.Panza G., Kossobokov V.G., Peresan A., Nekrasova A., 2014. Why are the standard probabilistic methods of estimating seismic hazard and risks too often wrong. In: M. Wyss, J.F. Shroder (Eds.), Earthquake hazard, risk and disasters. Elsevier, Amsterdam, p. 309–357. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-394848-9.00012-2.Pec M., Stünitz H., Heilbronner R., Drury M., 2016. Semi-brittle flow of granitoid fault rocks in experiments. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 121 (3), 1677–1705. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012513.Pec M., Stünitz H., Heilbronner R., Drury M., 2016. Semi-brittle flow of granitoid fault rocks in experiments. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 121 (3), 1677–1705. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012513.Ребецкий Ю.Л. Тектонические напряжения и прочность горных массивов. М.: Академкнига, 2007. 406 с.Rebetsky Yu.L., 2007. Tectonic Stresses and Strength of Mountain Ranges. Akademkniga, Moscow, 406 p. (in Russian).Rice J.R., 2006. Heating and weakening of faults during earthquake slip. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 111 (B5), B05311. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JB004006.Rice J.R., 2006. Heating and weakening of faults during earthquake slip. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 111 (B5), B05311. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JB004006.Родкин М.В., Рундквист Д.В. Геофлюидогеодинамика. Приложение к сейсмологии, тектонике, процессам рудо- и нефтегенеза. Долгопрудный: Издательский дом «Интеллект», 2017. 288 с.Rodkin M.V., Rundquist D.V., 2017. Geofluidogeodynamics. Application to Seismology, Tectonics, Ore- and Petroleum Genesis. “Intellect” Publishing House, Dolgoprudny, 288 p. (in Russian).Romashkova L.L., Kossobokov V.G., 2007. Global seismic symptoms of lithosphere instability at the approach of the December 26, 2004, Sumatra-Andaman megaearthquake. Doklady Earth Sciences 417 (1), 1221–1223. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X07080193.Romashkova L.L., Kossobokov V.G., 2007. Global seismic symptoms of lithosphere instability at the approach of the December 26, 2004, Sumatra-Andaman megaearthquake. Doklady Earth Sciences 417 (1), 1221–1223. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X07080193.Romashkova L.L., Kossobokov V.G., 2013. Spatially stable application of algorithm M8: Italy and California. In: A. Ismail-Zade, E. Nyland, R. Odom, M. Sen, V.I. Keilis-Borok, A.L. Levshin, G.M. Molchan (Eds.), Selected Papers From Volumes 33 and 34 of Vychislitel'naya Seysmologiya. Computational Seismology and Geodynamics, vol. 8, p. 12–21. https://doi.org/10.1029/CS008p0012.Romashkova L.L., Kossobokov V.G., 2013. Spatially stable application of algorithm M8: Italy and California. In: A. Ismail-Zade, E. Nyland, R. Odom, M. Sen, V.I. Keilis-Borok, A.L. Levshin, G.M. Molchan (Eds.), Selected Papers From Volumes 33 and 34 of Vychislitel'naya Seysmologiya. Computational Seismology and Geodynamics, vol. 8, p. 12–21. https://doi.org/10.1029/CS008p0012.Ружич В.В. Сейсмотектоническая деструкция в земной коре Байкальской рифтовой зоны. Новосибирск: Изд-во СО РАН, 1997. 144 с.Ruzhich V.V., 1997. Seismotectonic Destruction of the Earth's Crust in the Baikal Rift Zone. Publishing House of SB RAS, Novosibirsk, 144 p. (in Russian).Ружич В.В., Черных Е.Н., Пономарева Е.И. Экспериментальное моделирование механизмов возникновения источников сейсмических колебаний при взаимодействии неровностей в разломах // Геодинамика и тектонофизика. 2014. Т. 5. № 2. С. 563–576. https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2014-5-2-0141.Ruzhich V.V., Chernykh E.N., Ponomareva E.I., 2014. Experimental modelling of mechanisms causing occurrence of seismic oscillation sources in case of interactions of uneven surfaces in faults. Geodynamics & Tectonophysics 5 (2), 563–576 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2014-5-2-0141.Ружич В.В., Хилько С.Д. Анализ моделей очагов землетрясений с сейсмогеологических позиций // Физические основы прогнозирования разрушения горных пород при землетрясениях / Ред. М.А. Садовский, Г.А. Соболев. М.: Наука, 1987. С. 113–122.Ruzhich V.V., Khil'ko S.D., 1987. Analysis of earthquake foci models in terms of seismic geology. In: M.A. Sadovsky, G.A. Sobolev (Eds.), Physical bases for prediction of rock failure during earthquakes. Nauka, Moscow, p. 113–122 (in Russian).Ружич В.В., Кочарян Г.Г. О строении и формировании очагов землетрясений в разломах на приповерхностном и глубинном уровне земной коры. Статья I. Приповерхностный уровень // Геодинамика и тектонофизика. 2017. Т. 8. № 4. С. 1021–1034. https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2017-8-4-0330.Ruzhich V.V., Kocharyan G.G., 2017. On the structure and formation of earthquake sources in the faults located in the subsurface and deep levels of the crust. Part I. Subsurface level. Geodynamics & Tectonophysics 8 (4), 1021–1034 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2017-8-4-0330.Садовский М.А., Кочарян Г.Г., Родионов В.Н. О механике блочного горного массива // Доклады АН СССР. 1988. Т. 302. № 2. С. 306–308.Sadovsky M.A., Kocharyan G.G., Rodionov V.N., 1988. Mechanics of a rock body with block structure. Doklady AN SSSR 302 (2), 306–308 (in Russian).Sassorova E.V., Levin B.W., 2001. The low-frequency seismic signal foregoing a main shock as a sign of the last stage of earthquake preparation or preliminary rupture. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part C: Solar, Terrestrial & Planetary Science 26 (10–12), 775–780. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1464-1917(01)95024-X.Sassorova E.V., Levin B.W., 2001. The low-frequency seismic signal foregoing a main shock as a sign of the last stage of earthquake preparation or preliminary rupture. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Part C: Solar, Terrestrial & Planetary Science 26 (10–12), 775–780. https://doi.org/10.1016/S1464-1917(01)95024-X.Scholz C.H., 2002. The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 496 p.Scholz C.H., 2002. The Mechanics of Earthquakes and Faulting. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 496 p.Scuderi M.M., Marone C., Tinti E., Di Stefano G., Collettini C., 2016. Precursory changes in seismic velocity for the spectrum of earthquake failure modes. Nature Geoscience 9 (9), 695–700. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2775.Scuderi M.M., Marone C., Tinti E., Di Stefano G., Collettini C., 2016. Precursory changes in seismic velocity for the spectrum of earthquake failure modes. Nature Geoscience 9 (9), 695–700. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2775.Семинский К.Ж., Кожевников Н.О., Черемных А.В., Поспеева Е.В., Бобров А.А., Оленченко В.В., Тугарина М.А., Потапов В.В., Зарипов Р.М., Черемных А.С. Межблоковые зоны в земной коре юга Восточной Сибири: тектонофизическая интерпретация геолого-геофизических данных // Геодинамика и тектонофизика. 2013. Т. 4. № 3. С. 203–278. https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2013-4-3-0099.Seminsky K.Zh., Kozhevnikov N.O., Cheremnykh A.V., Pospeeva E.V., Bobrov A.A., Olenchenko V.V., Tugarina M.A., Pota-pov V.V., Zaripov R.M., Cheremnykh A.S., 2013. Interblock zones in the crust of the southern regions of East Siberia: tectonophysical interpretation of geological and geophysical data. Geodynamics & Tectonophysics 4 (3), 203–278 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2013-4-3-0099.Шерман С.И. Сейсмический процесс и прогноз землетрясений: тектонофизическая концепция. Новосибирск: Академическое издательство «Гео», 2014. 359 с.Sherman S.I., 2014. Seismic Process and the Forecast of Earthquakes: Tectonophysical Conception. Academic Publi-shing House “Geo”, Novosibirsk, 359 p. (in Russian).Шерман С.И. Тектонофизические признаки формирования очагов сильных землетрясений в сейсмических зонах Центральной Азии // Геодинамика и тектонофизика. 2016. Т. 7. № 4. С. 495–512. https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2016-7-4-0219.Sherman S.I., 2016. Tectonophysical signs of the formation of strong earthquake foci in seismic zones of Central Asia. Geodynamics & Tectonophysics 7 (4), 495–512 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2016-7-4-0219.Sibson R.H., 1973. Interactions between temperature and pore-fluid pressure during earthquake faulting and a mechanism for partial or total stress relief. Nature Physical Science 243 (126), 66-68. https://doi.org/10.1038/physci243066a0.Sibson R.H., 1973. Interactions between temperature and pore-fluid pressure during earthquake faulting and a mechanism for partial or total stress relief. Nature Physical Science 243 (126), 66-68. https://doi.org/10.1038/physci243066a0.Sibson R.H., 2011. The scope of earthquake geology. In: Å. Fagereng, V.G. Toy, J.V. Rowland (Eds.), Geology of the earthquake source: A volume in honour of Rick Sibson. Geological Society, London, Special Publications, vol. 359, p. 319–331. https://doi.org/10.1144/SP359.18.Sibson R.H., 2011. The scope of earthquake geology. In: Å. Fagereng, V.G. Toy, J.V. Rowland (Eds.), Geology of the earthquake source: A volume in honour of Rick Sibson. Geological Society, London, Special Publications, vol. 359, p. 319–331. https://doi.org/10.1144/SP359.18.Соболев Г.А. Основы прогноза землетрясений. М.: Наука, 1993. 313 с.Sobolev G.A., 1993. Fundamentals of Earthquake Prediction. Nauka, Moscow, 313 p. (in Russian).Sobolev G.A., 2011. Seismicity dynamics and earthquake predictability. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 11 (2), 445–458. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-445-2011.Sobolev G.A., 2011. Seismicity dynamics and earthquake predictability. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 11 (2), 445–458. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-11-445-2011.Соболев Г.А. Сейсмический шум. М.: ООО «Наука и образование», 2014. 272 с.Sobolev G.A., 2014. Seismic Noise. Nauka i Obrazovanie, Moscow, 272 p. (in Russian).Sobolev G.A., Lyubushin A.A., Zakrzhevskaya N.A., 2008. Asymmetrical pulses, the periodicity and synchronization of low frequency microseisms. Journal of Volcanology and Seismology 2 (2), 118–134. https://doi.org/10.1134/S074204630802005X.Sobolev G.A., Lyubushin A.A., Zakrzhevskaya N.A., 2008. Asymmetrical pulses, the periodicity and synchronization of low frequency microseisms. Journal of Volcanology and Seismology 2 (2), 118–134. https://doi.org/10.1134/S074204630802005X.Соболев Г.А., Пономарев А.В. Физика землетрясений и предвестники. М.: Наука, 2003. 270 с.Sobolev G.A., Ponomarev A.V., 2003. The Physics of Earthquakes and Precursors. Nauka, Moscow, 270 p. (in Russian).Sobolev G.A., Ponomarev A.V., Maibuk Y.Y., 2016a. Initiation of unstable slips–microearthquakes by elastic impulses. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth 52 (5), 674–691. https://doi.org/10.1134/S106935131605013X.Sobolev G.A., Ponomarev A.V., Maibuk Y.Y., 2016a. Initiation of unstable slips–microearthquakes by elastic impulses. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth 52 (5), 674–691. https://doi.org/10.1134/S106935131605013X.Соболев Г.А., Веттегрень В.И., Киреенкова С.М., Кулик В.Б., Морозов Ю.А., Смульская А.И., Щербаков И.П. Нанокристаллы в горных породах. М.: ГЕОС, 2016. 102 с.Sobolev G.A., Vettegren’ V.I., Kireenkova S.M., Kulik V.B., Mamalimov R.I., Morozov Yu.A., Smulskaya A.I., Shcherbakov I.P., 2016b. Nanocrystals in Rock. GEOS, Moscow, 102 p. (in Russian).Sobolev G.A., Vettegren’ V.I., Mamalimov R.I., Shcherbakov I.P., Ruzhich V.V., Ivanova L.A., 2015. A study of nanocrystals and the glide-plane mechanism. Journal of Volcanology and Seismology 9 (3), 151–161. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0742046315030057.Sobolev G.A., Vettegren’ V.I., Mamalimov R.I., Shcherbakov I.P., Ruzhich V.V., Ivanova L.A., 2015. A study of nanocrystals and the glide-plane mechanism. Journal of Volcanology and Seismology 9 (3), 151–161. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0742046315030057.Sornette D., 2000. Mechanochemistry: an hypothesis for shallow earthquakes. In: R. Teisseyre, E. Majewski (Eds.), Earthquake thermodynamics and phase transformations in the Earth's interior. International Geophysics Series, vol. 76, p. 329–366. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0074-6142(01)80090-5.Sornette D., 2000. Mechanochemistry: an hypothesis for shallow earthquakes. In: R. Teisseyre, E. Majewski (Eds.), Earthquake thermodynamics and phase transformations in the Earth's interior. International Geophysics Series, vol. 76, p. 329–366. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0074-6142(01)80090-5.Summers R., Byerlee J., 1977. A note on the effect of fault gouge composition on the stability of frictional sliding. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences & Geomechanics Abstracts 14 (3), 144–160. https://doi.org/10.1016/0148-9062(77)90007-9.Summers R., Byerlee J., 1977. A note on the effect of fault gouge composition on the stability of frictional sliding. International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences & Geomechanics Abstracts 14 (3), 144–160. https://doi.org/10.1016/0148-9062(77)90007-9.Verberne B.A., Niemeijer A.R., De Bresser J.H., Spiers C.J., 2015. Mechanical behavior and microstructure of simulated calcite fault gouge sheared at 20–600 C: Implications for natural faults in limestones. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 120 (12), 8169–8196. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012292.Verberne B.A., Niemeijer A.R., De Bresser J.H., Spiers C.J., 2015. Mechanical behavior and microstructure of simulated calcite fault gouge sheared at 20–600 C: Implications for natural faults in limestones. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 120 (12), 8169–8196. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JB012292.Wibberley C., Shimamoto T., 2003. Internal structure and permeability of major strike-slip fault: The median tectonic line in Mie Prefecture, Southwest Japan. Journal of Structural Geology 25 (1), 59–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0191-8141(02)00014-7.Wibberley C., Shimamoto T., 2003. Internal structure and permeability of major strike-slip fault: The median tectonic line in Mie Prefecture, Southwest Japan. Journal of Structural Geology 25 (1), 59–78. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0191-8141(02)00014-7.Woodcock N.H., Mort K., 2008. Classification of fault breccias and related fault rocks. Geological Magazine 145 (3), 435–440. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0016756808004883.Woodcock N.H., Mort K., 2008. Classification of fault breccias and related fault rocks. Geological Magazine 145 (3), 435–440. https://doi.org/10.1017/S0016756808004883.Завьялов А.Д. Среднесрочный прогноз землетрясений: основы, методика, реализация. М.: Наука, 2006. 254 с.Zavyalov A.D., 2006. Medium-Term Forecasting of Earthquakes: Fundamentals, Methods, Implementation. Nauka, Moscow, 254 p. (in Russian).

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.