gtcrustГеодинамика и тектонофизикаGeodynamics & Tectonophysics2078-502XInstitute of the Earth's crust of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch10.5800/GT-2025-16-1-0812dkqfqogtcrust-1988Research ArticleСОВРЕМЕННАЯ ГЕОДИНАМИКАRECENT GEODYNAMICSЭВОЛЮЦИЯ ДЕФИЦИТА ВНУТРЕННИХ СМЕЩЕНИЙ ЗЕМНОЙ КОРЫ ПО ДАННЫМ GPS В СВЯЗИ С СЕЙСМИЧНОСТЬЮ 2014–2024 гг. И ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЕМ ХУАЛЯНЬ, ТАЙВАНЬ (МW=7.4)EVOLUTION OF INNER CRUSTAL DISPLACEMENT DEFICIT ACCORDING TO THE GPS DATA IN CONNECTION WITH SEISMICITY IN THE PERIOD OF 2014–2024 AND THE MW=7.4 HUALIEN EARTHQUAKE, TAIWANКафтанВ. И.KaftanV. I.

119296, Москва, ул. Молодежная, 3

3 Molodezhnaya St, Moscow 119296

МельниковА. Ю.MelnikovA. Yu.

117198, Москва, ул. Миклухо-Маклая, 6

6 Miklukho-Maklay St, Moscow 117198

ДокукинП. А.DokukinP. A.

117198, Москва, ул. Миклухо-Маклая, 6

6 Miklukho-Maklay St, Moscow 117198

Геофизический центр РАНРоссияGeophysical Center, Russian Academy of SciencesRussian FederationРоссийский университет дружбы народовРоссияRUDN UniversityRussian Federation202519022025161812812Copyright © Кафтан В.И., Мельников А.Ю., Докукин П.А., 20252025Кафтан В.И., Мельников А.Ю., Докукин П.А.Kaftan V.I., Melnikov A.Y., Dokukin P.A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.gt-crust.ru/jour/article/view/1988

Исследование посвящено анализу эволюции внутренних движений земной коры территории Тайваня в связи с ходом сейсмического процесса за последние 10 лет. Первичными данными послужили временные ряды непрерывных GPS-наблюдений, каталог землетрясений и расположение основных тектонических структур. На каждые сутки по отношению к начальной эпохе определялись векторы горизонтальных смещений станций GPS. Использовалась внутренняя система отсчета, согласно которой общее движение территории, определенное в глобальной системе координат, исключалось. Была построена видеоанимация для синоптического анализа эволюции внутренних движений в связи с сейсмичностью и тектоникой. Показано, что большинство сильных, M≥6, землетрясений произошло внутри и на границах зон дефицита внутренних движений земной коры. Это позволяет рассматривать эти области упрочнения земной коры в качестве сейсмопрогностического признака. Они обнаруживаются по мере накопления GPS-наблюдений за несколько лет и разрушаются сильными сейсмическими событиями, а также большими группами умеренных и слабых землетрясений. На момент 2024 г. на территории острова образовалась зона упрочнения земной коры, вытянутая полосой от восточного побережья к западному. Она связывает места сближения глубоководных желобов Рюкю и Манила с сушей островной территории. Можно полагать, что эта область маркирует зону повышенных сейсмогенерирующих напряжений, что важно принимать во внимание при дальнейшей оценке сейсмической опасности.

The study deals with the analysis of the evolution of seismicity and inner crustal movements in Taiwan over the past 10 years. The primary data sources included time series generated from permanent GPS observations, the earthquake catalog, and the location of the main tectonic structures. Horizontal displacement vectors of GPS stations were determined for each day, relative to the initial epoch. An inner reference system was used in the absence of general area motion defined in the global coordinate system. An animation video was made for synoptic analysis of the evolution of internally generated seismic and tectonic motions. It is shown that the majority of strong M≥6 earthquakes occurred within the boundaries of the inner crustal movement deficit zones or thereon. This allows us to consider such highstrength crustal areas as prognostic signs of earthquakes. They are revealed by GPS observations over several years and destroyed by strong seismic events, as well as by large groups of moderate and weak earthquakes. By 2024, on the island there was formed an east-to-west elongated high-strength zone. It connects the place of convergence of the Ryukyu and Manila trenches with the insular land. It can be assumed that this area marks a zone of high seismic-generating stresses, which is important to take into account in further assessment of seismic hazard.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.