gtcrustГеодинамика и тектонофизикаGeodynamics & Tectonophysics2078-502XInstitute of the Earth's crust of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch10.5800/GT-2025-16-1-0811muebpvgtcrust-1987Research ArticleСОВРЕМЕННАЯ ГЕОДИНАМИКАRECENT GEODYNAMICSУТОЧНЕНИЕ ХАРАКТЕРА ТИПОВЫХ ПРЕДВЕСТНИКОВЫХ АНОМАЛИЙ ДЛЯ РАЗНОГЛУБИННЫХ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЙ КУРИЛО-КАМЧАТСКОГО РЕГИОНАCLARIFICATION OF THE NATURE OF TYPICAL PRECURSOR ANOMALIES FOR DIFFERENT-DEPTH EARTHQUAKES IN THE KURIL-KAMCHATKA REGIONРодкинМ. В.RodkinM. V.

117997, Москва, ул. Профсоюзная, 84/32; 693022, Южно-Сахалинск, ул. Науки, 1Б

84-32 Profsoyuznaya St, Moscow 117997; 1B Nauki St, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk 693022

АндрееваМ. Ю.AndreevaM. Yu.

693022, Южно-Сахалинск, ул. Науки, 1Б

1B Nauki St, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk 693022

Институт теории прогноза землетрясений и математической геофизики РАН; Институт морской геологии и геофизики ДВО РАНРоссияInstitute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences; Institute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of SciencesRussian FederationИнститут морской геологии и геофизики ДВО РАНРоссияInstitute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation202519022025161811811Copyright © Родкин М.В., Андреева М.Ю., 20252025Родкин М.В., Андреева М.Ю.Rodkin M.V., Andreeva M.Y.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.gt-crust.ru/jour/article/view/1987

Ставится задача исследования возможности построения нового алгоритма прогноза землетрясений на основе набора предвестниковых эффектов, ранее надежно выявленных по мировым данным в результате построения обобщенной окрестности сильного землетрясения, сформированной масштабированным объединением данных по большому числу фор- и афтершоковых областей отдельных сильных землетрясений. Применительно к региону Камчатка – Северные Курилы решение этой задачи на первом этапе предусматривает уточнение регионального характера осредненных предвестниковых эффектов на основе наиболее полного и однородного регионального каталога. Отмечено более позднее начало аномалий изменения интенсивности потока событий и наклона графика повторяемости для среднеглубоких землетрясений. Для глубоких землетрясений доминирует тенденция не уменьшения, а увеличения глубины слабых событий в окрестности сильных. Уточненные особенности осредненного предвестникового поведения будут использованы как типовые паттерны для прогноза разноглубинных землетрясений Курило-Камчатского региона.

The task was set on investigation of the possibility of constructing a new algorithm for earthquake prediction based on a set of precursor effects that had been reliably identified from the world data as a result of constructing the generalized vicinity of a strong earthquake from a scaled combination of the data on a large number of foreshock and aftershock areas of individual strong earthquakes. In relation to the Kamchatka-Northern Kurils region, the first-stage solution of this task lies in clarification of the regional character of the averaged precursor effects on the basis of the most complete and homogeneous regional catalogue. There has been a later onset of anomalous changes in the intensity of flow of events and in the slope of the recurrence diagram for intermediate-depth earthquakes. The deep-seated earthquakes show a dominant trend of increased rather than decreased depth of weak events in the vicinity of strong events. The specified features of the averaged precursor behavior will be used as typical patterns to predict different-depth earthquakes in the Kuril-Kamchatka region.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.