gtcrustГеодинамика и тектонофизикаGeodynamics & Tectonophysics2078-502XInstitute of the Earth's crust of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch10.5800/GT-2024-15-3-0762IXMJFEgtcrust-1851Research ArticleСОВРЕМЕННАЯ ГЕОДИНАМИКАRECENT GEODYNAMICSРЕТРОСПЕКТИВНЫЙ СРЕДНЕСРОЧНЫЙ ПРОГНОЗ КАТАСТРОФИЧЕСКОГО ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЯ В ТУРЦИИ В 2023 ГОДУ (06.02.2023, MW=7.7) МЕТОДОМ LURRRetrospective Medium-Term Forecast of a Catastrophic Earthquake in Turkey in 2023 (02.06.2023, MW=7.7) Using the LURR MethodЗакупинА. С.ZakupinA. S.

693022, Южно-Сахалинск, ул. Науки, 1Б

Alexander S. Zakupin

1B Nauki St, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk 693022

dikii79@mail.ruСычеваН. А.SychevaN. A.

123242, Москва, ул. Большая Грузинская, 10, стр. 1

10-1 Bolshaya Gruzinskaya St, Moscow 123242

Институт морской геологии и геофизики ДВО РАНРоссияInstitute of Marine Geology and Geophysics, Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of SciencesRussian FederationИнститут физики Земли им. О.Ю. Шмидта РАНРоссияSchmidt Institute of Physics of the Earth, Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation202418062024153762762Copyright © Закупин А.С., Сычева Н.А., 20242024Закупин А.С., Сычева Н.А.Zakupin A.S., Sycheva N.A.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.gt-crust.ru/jour/article/view/1851

Рассмотрены вариации параметра среднесрочного прогноза землетрясений LURR (load-unload response ratio, коэффициент отклика на нагрузку – разгрузку) в сочетании с изменениями режимов сейсмотектонических деформаций (СТД) для области Восточно-Анатолийского разлома (ВАРЗ), где в феврале 2023 г. произошли катастрофические землетрясения (06.02.2003 г., MW=7.8, 06.02.2003 г., MW=7.6). Глубина каталога землетрясений для расчетов по методу LURR была равна 23 годам, а оценки режимов СТД удалось получить с 1976 г. Расчеты показали удовлетворительные результаты по выявлению аномалий LURR перед сильными землетрясениями. Около половины аномалий произошли в полуторагодичный период до дублета и однозначно ассоциируются как предвестники. Предвестники были зарегистрированы двумя сериями аномалий параметра LURR в 2021 и 2022 гг., а области расчета, в которых они были зарегистрированы, компактно покрывают ВАРЗ, включая эпицентры землетрясений 6 февраля 2023 г. Результаты расчетов по методу LURR сопоставлялись с данными реконструкции по методу СТД. В результате удалось выстроить динамику процесса подготовки землетрясения в его финальной части – от появления аномалии LURR до землетрясения. При этом также учитывался период до появления аномалий (с 1976 г.). Показано, что в период аномального поведения LURR (прогнозный период) наблюдались наиболее значимые изменения геодинамического режима, равно как и резкий рост общей сейсмической активности.

Variations of the LURR (load-unload response ratio) earthquake medium-term forecasr parameter in combination with changes in seismotectonic deformation modes (STD) for the East Anatolian fault region, where catastrophic earthquakes occurred in February 2023 (06.02.2003, MW=7.8, 06.02.2003, MW=7.6) are considered. The depth of the earthquake catalog for the LURR method calculations was equal to 23 years, and estimates of STD modes were possible received since 1976. Calculations have shown satisfactory results in detecting LURR anomalies before strong earthquakes. Almost half of the anomalies occurred in the one and a half year period before the doublet, and are unambiguously associated as precursors. The precursors were recorded by two series of LURR parameter anomalies in 2021 and 2022, and the calculation areas in which they were recorded compactly cover the East Anatolian fault, including the epicenters of the earthquakes on February 6, 2023. The results of calculations using the LURR method were compared with the reconstruction data using the STD method. As a result, it was possible to build the dynamics of the earthquake preparation process in its final part – from the appearance of the LURR anomaly to the earthquake. At the same time, the period before the appearance of anomalies (since the 1976) was also taken into account. It is shown that during the period of abnormal LURR behavior (the forecast period), the most significant changes in the geodynamic regime were observed, as well as a sharp increase in total seismic activity.

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The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.