gtcrustГеодинамика и тектонофизикаGeodynamics & Tectonophysics2078-502XInstitute of the Earth's crust of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch10.5800/GT-2022-13-2-0588gtcrust-1489Research ArticleСтатьиНОВЫЙ ПОДХОД К ПРОГНОЗУ СИЛЬНЫХ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЙ В ЮЖНО-БАЙКАЛЬСКОМ РЕГИОНЕ НА ОСНОВЕ ДАННЫХ МОНИТОРИНГА ДЕФОРМАЦИИ ГОРНЫХ ПОРОД: МЕТОДОЛОГИЯ И РЕЗУЛЬТАТЫNEW APPROACH TO STRONG EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION IN THE SOUTH BAIKAL REGION ON THE BASIS OF ROCK DEFORMATION MONITORING DATA: METHODOLOGY AND RESULTSБорняковС. А.BornyakovS. A.

664033, Иркутск, ул. Лермонтова, 128

128 Lermontov St, Irkutsk 664033

МирошниченкоА. И.MiroshnichenkoA. I.

664033, Иркутск, ул. Лермонтова, 128

128 Lermontov St, Irkutsk 664033

ВстовскийГ. В.VstovskyG. V.

117997, Москва, ул. Архитектора Власова, 49

49 Architect Vlasov St, Moscow, 117997

СинцовА. Е.SintsovA. E.

109147 Москва, ул. Таганская, 34А

34А Taganskaya St, Moscow, 109147

СалкоД. В.SalkoD. V.

664033, Иркутск, ул. Лермонтова, 128

128 Lermontov St, Irkutsk 664033

Институт земной коры СО РАНРоссияInstitute of the Earth’s Crust, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of SciencesRussian FederationЗАО «ЦНИИПСК им. Мельникова»РоссияCJSC Melnikov Central Research and Design Institute of Construction Metal StructuresRussian FederationАО ВО «Безопасность»РоссияJSC Foreign Trade Organization "Security"Russian Federation202214062022132588588Copyright © Борняков С.А., Мирошниченко А.И., Встовский Г.В., Синцов А.Е., Салко Д.В., 20222022Борняков С.А., Мирошниченко А.И., Встовский Г.В., Синцов А.Е., Салко Д.В.Bornyakov S.A., Miroshnichenko A.I., Vstovsky G.V., Sintsov A.E., Salko D.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.gt-crust.ru/jour/article/view/1489

Южное Прибайкалье (ЮП) находится в пределах активно развивающейся Байкальской рифтовой зоны (БРЗ), обладающей значительным сейсмическим потенциалом. Здесь периодически происходят землетрясения с магнитудой более 7 и с интенсивностью сотрясений в эпицентрах до 10 баллов. В условиях высокой степени урбанизации ЮП и активного развития в его пределах промышленных кластеров и транспортных систем существенно повышается актуальность проблемы прогноза сильных землетрясений. В ИЗК СО РАН для решения этой проблемы проводится комплекс исследований по разным направлениям. Одно из них связано с инструментальным изучением современных движений литосферы на больших базах посредством GPS-геодезии и деформаций горных пород на малых базах штанговыми тензометрическими датчиками. Существующе пункты GPS и деформационных измерений объединены в уникальную научную установку «Южно-Байкальский инструментальный комплекс для мониторинга опасных геодинамических процессов» (УНУ «ЮБИК»), входящую в состав ЦКП «Геодинамика и геохронология».

В статье рассмотрены методические вопросы деформационного мониторинга на малых базах. Описаны его концептуальная основа, техническая база и методы обработки получаемого фактического материла. На примере произошедших в последнее время в ЮП трех сильных землетрясений – Култукского (27.08.2008 г.), Быстринского (21.09.2020 г.) и Кударинского (10.12.2020 г.) – показаны предшествующие им особенности развития деформаций горных пород, а также влияние на них структурно-геодинамических условий в местах расположения пунктов мониторинга и пространственного положения этих пунктов относительно готовящегося очага землетрясения.

The Southern Baikal is located within the actively developing Baikal rift zone (BRZ) that is characterized by a significant seismic potential, and M>7 earthquakes occur periodically with intensive shaking in the epicenters (up to 10 units). The problem of prediction and forecasting of strong earthquakes has always been critical for this region, considering its increasing urbanization, industrial clusters and transport systems. The article describes the methodology based on rock deformation monitoring data, which aims at developing a technology capable of efficient prediction and forecasting of strong earthquakes. In the Institute of Earth’s Crust SB RAS a set of studies is carried out in order to solve this problem, including those associated with the instrumental study of current movements of the lithosphere through GPS geodesy and deformations of rocks by strain gauges. The existing GPS sites and deformation measurements are combined into the Large-Scale Research Facilities "South Baikal instrumental complex for monitoring hazardous geodynamic processes" in frame of the Shared Research Facilities "Geodynamics and Geochronology" at the Institute of the Earth’s Crust, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Science.

In this article, the deformation monitoring methodology is described in application to the monitoring sites installed in the study area. The description includes the details of its conceptual basis, technical support and data processing methods. The discussion focuses on the instrumental measurements of rock deformation related to three strong events in the study area – Kultuk (August 27, 2008), Bystrinskoe (September 21, 2020), and Kudara (December 10, 2020) earthquakes. The features of the deformation process before these seismic events are given special attention with account of the structural-geodynamic settings and positions of local monitoring sites relative to the earthquake epicenters.

мониторинг деформаций горных породземлетрясениепредвестникпрогнозrock deformation monitoringearthquakeprecursorpredictionИсследование выполнено при финансовой поддержке РФФИ (проект № 21-55-53019) с использованием УНУ «Южно-Байкальский инструментальный комплекс для мониторинга опасных геодинамических процессов», входящей в состав ЦКП «Геодинамика и геохронология» Института земной коры СО РАН.rock deformation monitoring; earthquake; precursor; predictionReferencesBak P., Tang C., 1989. Earthquakes as a Self-Organized Critical Phenomenon. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 94 (B11), 15635–15637. https://doi.org/10.1029/JB094iB11p15635.Bak P., Tang C., 1989. Earthquakes as a Self-Organized Critical Phenomenon. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 94 (B11), 15635–15637. https://doi.org/10.1029/JB094iB11p15635.Борняков С.А. Динамические критерии самоорганизации систем разрывов в сдвиговой зоне (по результатам физического моделирования) // Доклады АН. 2008. Т. 420. № 6. С. 822–824.Bornyakov S.A., 2008. Dynamic Criteria for the Self-Organization of Crack Systems in the Shear Zone (According to the Results of Physical Modeling). Doklady Earth Sciences 420, (6), 822–824 (in Russian)Bornyakov S.A., Dobrynina A.A., Seminsky K.Zh., Sankov V.A., Radziminovich N.A., Salko D.V., Shagun A.N., 2021. The Bystrinskii Earthquake in the Southern Baikal Region (Sep. 21, 2020, Mw=5.4): General Characteristics, Basic Parameters, and Deformation Signs of the Transition of the Focus to the Meta-Unstable State. Doklady Earth Sciences 498, 427–431. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X21050044.Bornyakov S.A., Dobrynina A.A., Seminsky K.Zh., Sankov V.A., Radziminovich N.A., Salko D.V., Shagun A.N., 2021. The Bystrinskii Earthquake in the Southern Baikal Region (Sep. 21, 2020, Mw=5.4): General Characteristics, Basic Parameters, and Deformation Signs of the Transition of the Focus to the Meta-Unstable State. Doklady Earth Sciences 498, 427–431. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X21050044.Борняков С.А., Ma Ц., Мирошниченко А.И., Гуо Ю., Салко Д.В., Зуев Ф.Л. Диагностика метанестабильного состояния сейсмоактивного разлома. Геодинамика и тектонофизика. 2017. Т. 8. № 4. С. 989–998. https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2017-8-4-0328.Bornyakov S.A., Ма J., Miroshnichenko A.I., Guo Y., Salko D.V., Zuev F.L., 2017. Diagnostics of Meta-Instable State of Seismically Active Fault. Geodynamics & Tectonophysics 8 (4), 989–998 (in Russian) https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2017-8-4-0328.Bornyakov S.A., Miroshnichenko A.I., Salko D.V., 2016. Diagnostics of the Preseismogenic State of Heterogeneous Media According to Deformation Monitoring Data. Doklady Earth Sciences 468, 481–484. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X16050032.Bornyakov S.A., Miroshnichenko A.I., Salko D.V., 2016. Diagnostics of the Preseismogenic State of Heterogeneous Media According to Deformation Monitoring Data. Doklady Earth Sciences 468, 481–484. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X16050032.[Борняков С.А., Салко Д.В., Шагун А.Н., Добрынина А.А., Усынин Л.А. Медленные деформационные волны как возможный предвестник сейсмической опасности // Геосистемы переходных зон. 2019. Т. 3. № 3. С. 267–276. https://doi.org/10.30730/2541-8912.2019.3.3.267-276.Bornyakov S.A., Salko D.V., Shagun A.N., Dobrynina A.A., Usynin L.A., 2019. Slow Deformation Waves as a Possible Precursor of Seismic Danger. Geosystems of Transition Zones 3 (3), 267–276 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.30730/2541-8912.2019.3.3.267-276.Bornyakov S.A., Vstovskii G.V., 2010. The First Experiment of Seismodeformational Monitoring of the Baikal Rift Zone: Example of the August 27, 2008, South-Baikal Earthquake. Doklady Earth Sciences 431, 469–473. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X10040136.Bornyakov S.A., Vstovskii G.V., 2010. The First Experiment of Seismodeformational Monitoring of the Baikal Rift Zone: Example of the August 27, 2008, South-Baikal Earthquake. Doklady Earth Sciences 431, 469–473. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1028334X10040136.Brace W.F., Byerlee J.D., 1966. Stick-slip as a Mechanism for Earthquake. Science153, 990–992.Brace W.F., Byerlee J.D., 1966. Stick-slip as a Mechanism for Earthquake. Science153, 990–992.Бриллюэн Л. Научная неопределенность и информация. М.: Мир,1966. 271 с..Brillouin L., 1966. Scientific Uncertainty and Information. Mir, Moscow, 271 p. (in Russian).Бухаров А.А. Кайнозойское развитие Байкала по результатам глубоководных и сейсмостратиграфических исследований // Геология и геофизика. 1996. Т. 37. № 12. С. 98–107.Bukharov A.A., 1996. Cenozoic Development of Baikal According to Results of Deep-Water and Seismostratigraphic Studies. Russian Geology and Geophysics 37 (12), 98–107 (in Russian).Bykov V.G., 2005. Strain Waves in the Earth: Theory, Field Data, and Models. Russian Geology and Geophysics 11, 1158–1170.Bykov V.G., 2005. Strain Waves in the Earth: Theory, Field Data, and Models. Russian Geology and Geophysics 11, 1158–1170.Cicerone R.D., Ebel J.E., Britton J., 2009. A Systematic Compilation of Earthquake Precursors. Tectonophysics 476 (3–4), 371–396. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2009.06.008.Cicerone R.D., Ebel J.E., Britton J., 2009. A Systematic Compilation of Earthquake Precursors. Tectonophysics 476 (3–4), 371–396. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2009.06.008.Ciliberto S., Laroche C., 1994. Experimental Evidence of Self-Organization in the Stick-Slip Dynamics of Two Rough Elastic Surface. Journal De Physique I 4, 223–235. https://doi.org/10.1051/JP1%3A1994134.Ciliberto S., Laroche C., 1994. Experimental Evidence of Self-Organization in the Stick-Slip Dynamics of Two Rough Elastic Surface. Journal De Physique I 4, 223–235. https://doi.org/10.1051/JP1%3A1994134.Feder H.J.S., Feder J., 1991. Self-Organized Criticality in Stick-Slip Process. Physical Review Letters 66 (20), 2669–2672. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.66.2669.Feder H.J.S., Feder J., 1991. Self-Organized Criticality in Stick-Slip Process. Physical Review Letters 66 (20), 2669–2672. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.66.2669.Фомин Ю.Н., Семибаламут В.М., Жмудь В.А., Панов С.В., Парушкин М.Д., Димитров Л.В. Результаты деформографических измерений в штольне на обсерватории Талая // Автоматика и программная инженерия. 2019. № 1 (27). С. 65–75.Fomin Yu.N., Semibalamut V.M., Zhmud V.A., Panov S.V., Parushkin M.D., Dimitrov L.V., 2019. The Results of Deformographic Measurements in the Gallery at the Talay Observatory. Automatics & Software Enginery 1 (27), 65–75 (in Russian).Geller R.G., Jackson D.D., Ragan Y.Y., Mulargia F., 1997. Earthquake Cannot Be Predicted. Science 275 (5306), 1616. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.275.5306.1616.Geller R.G., Jackson D.D., Ragan Y.Y., Mulargia F., 1997. Earthquake Cannot Be Predicted. Science 275 (5306), 1616. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.275.5306.1616.Gomberg J., Rubinstein J.L., Peng Z.G., Creager K.C., Vidale J.E., Bodin P., 2008. Widespread Triggering of Nonvolcanic Tremor in California. Science 319 (5860), 173. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1149164.Gomberg J., Rubinstein J.L., Peng Z.G., Creager K.C., Vidale J.E., Bodin P., 2008. Widespread Triggering of Nonvolcanic Tremor in California. Science 319 (5860), 173. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1149164.Haken H., 1978. Synergetics. Springer, 355 p. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-96469-5.Haken H., 1978. Synergetics. Springer, 355 p. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-96469-5.Haken H., 1983. Advanced Synergetics: Instability Hierarchies of Self-Organizing Systems and Devices. 2nd Edition. Springer, 356 p. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-45553-7.Haken H., 1983. Advanced Synergetics: Instability Hierarchies of Self-Organizing Systems and Devices. 2nd Edition. Springer, 356 p. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-45553-7.Idehara K., Yabe S., Ide S., 2014. Regional and Global Variations in the Temporal Clustering of Tectonic Tremor Activity. Earth, Planets and Space 66, 66. https://doi.org/10.1186/1880-5981-66-66.Idehara K., Yabe S., Ide S., 2014. Regional and Global Variations in the Temporal Clustering of Tectonic Tremor Activity. Earth, Planets and Space 66, 66. https://doi.org/10.1186/1880-5981-66-66.Логачев Н.А. Главные структурные черты и геодинамика Байкальской рифтовой зоны // Физическая мезомеханика. 1999. Т. 2. № 1–2. С. 163–170.Logachev N.A., 1999. Main Structural Features and Geodynamics of the Baikal Rift Zone. Physical Mesomechanics 2 (1–2), 163–170 (in Russian) . https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00648343.Lomb N.R., 1976. Least-Squares Frequency Analysis of Unequally Spaced Data. Astrophysics and Space Science 39, 447–462. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00648343.Lomb N.R., 1976. Least-Squares Frequency Analysis of Unequally Spaced Data. Astrophysics and Space Science 39, 447–462. https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00648343.Ма Ц., Гуо Я., Шерман С.И. Ускоренный синергизм вдоль разлома: возможный индикатор неизбежного крупного землетрясения. Геодинамика и тектонофизика. 2014. Т. 5. № 2. С. 387–399. https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2014-5-2-0134.Ma J., Guo Y., Sherman S.I., 2014. Accelerated Synergism along a Fault: A Possible Indicator for an Impending Major Earthquake. Geodynamics & Tectonophysics 5 (2), 387–399 (in Russian). https://doi.org/10.5800/GT-2014-5-2-0134.Ma J., Sherman S.I., Guo Y.S., 2012. Identification of Meta-Instable Stress State Based on Experimental Study of Evolution of the Temperature Field during Stick-Slip Instability on a Bending Fault. Science China Earth Sciences 55, 869–881. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-012-4423-2.Ma J., Sherman S.I., Guo Y.S., 2012. Identification of Meta-Instable Stress State Based on Experimental Study of Evolution of the Temperature Field during Stick-Slip Instability on a Bending Fault. Science China Earth Sciences 55, 869–881. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-012-4423-2.Mandelbrot B.B., 1982. The Fractal Geometry Nature. W.H. Freeman & Co, San Francisco, 480 p.Mandelbrot B.B., 1982. The Fractal Geometry Nature. W.H. Freeman & Co, San Francisco, 480 p.Мячкин В.Н. Процессы подготовки землетрясений. М.: Наука, 1978. 231 с..Myachkin V.N., 1978. Earthquake Preparation Processes. Nauka, Moscow, 231 p. (in Russian)Olami Z., Feder H.J.S., Christensen K., 1992. Self-Organized Criticality in a Continuous, Nonconservative Cellular Automaton Modeling Earthquakes. Physical Review Letters 68 (8), 1244. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.68.1244.Olami Z., Feder H.J.S., Christensen K., 1992. Self-Organized Criticality in a Continuous, Nonconservative Cellular Automaton Modeling Earthquakes. Physical Review Letters 68 (8), 1244. https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.68.1244.Peng Z., Gomberg J., 2010. An Integrated Perspective of the Continuum between Earthquakes and Slow-Slip Phenomena. Nature Geoscience 3, 599–607. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo940.Peng Z., Gomberg J., 2010. An Integrated Perspective of the Continuum between Earthquakes and Slow-Slip Phenomena. Nature Geoscience 3, 599–607. https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo940.Press W.H., Teukolsky S.A., Vetterling W.T., Flannery B.P., 2007. Spectral Analysis of Unevenly Sampled Data. In: Numerical Recipes. The Art of Scientific Computing. Cambridge University Press, New York, p. 685–692.Press W.H., Teukolsky S.A., Vetterling W.T., Flannery B.P., 2007. Spectral Analysis of Unevenly Sampled Data. In: Numerical Recipes. The Art of Scientific Computing. Cambridge University Press, New York, p. 685–692.Пригожин И., Кондепуди Д. Современная термодинамика: от тепловых двигателей до диссипативных структур. М.: Мир, 2002. 460 с..Prigogine I., Kondepudi D., 2002. Modern Thermodynamics. From Heat Engines to Dissipative Structures. Mir, Moscow, 460 p. (in Russian)..Псахье С.Г., Ружич В.В., Шилько Е.В., Астафуров С.В., Смекалин О.П. Изучение влияния водонасыщения и вибраций на режим смещений в зонах разломов // Физическая мезомеханика. 2004. Т. 7. № 1. С. 23–30.Psakhie S.G., Ruzhich V.V., Shilko E.V., Astafurov S.V., Smekalin O.P., 2004. Study of the Influence of Water Saturation and Vibrations on the Displacement Regime in Fault Zones. Physical Mesomechanics 7 (1), 23–30 (in Russian).Псахье С.Г., Ружич В.В., Смекалин О.П., Шилько Е.В. Режимы отклика геологических сред при динамических воздействиях // Физическая мезомеханика. 2001. Т. 4. № 1. С. 67–71.Psakhie S.G., Ruzhich V.V., Smekalin O.P., Shilko E.V., 2001. Response of the Geological Media to Dynamic Loading. Physical Mesomechanics 4 (1), 67–71 (in Russian).Ружич В.В. Высокоточный измерительный комплекс «Сдвиг» // Научный и промышленный потенциал Сибири. Инвестиционные проекты, новые технологии разработки: Международный каталог. Новосибирск: ЗАО «Новосибирский биографический центр», 2004. С. 90–91.Ruzhich V.V., 2004. High-Precision Measuring Complex "Shift". In: Scientific and Industrial Potential of Siberia. Investment Projects, New Development Technologies. International Catalogue. ZAO "Novosibirsk Biographical Center", Novosibirsk, p. 90–91 (in Russian).Ружич В.В., Псахье С.Г., Борняков С.А., Смекалин О.П., Шилько Е.Н., Черных Е.Н., Чечельницкий В.В., Астафуров С.В. Изучение влияния виброимпульсных воздействий на режим смещений в зонах сейсмоактивных разломов // Физическая мезомеханика. 2002. Т. 5. № 5–6. С. 85–96.Ruzhich V.V., Psakhie S.G., Bornyakov S.A., Smekalin O.P., Shilko E.N., Chernykh E.N., Chechelnitsky V.V., Astafurov S.V., 2002. Investigation of Influence of Vibroimpulse Excitations on Regime of Displacements in Seismically Active Fault Regions. Physical Mesomechanics 5 (5–6), 85–96 (in Russian).Ружич В.В., Псахье С.Г., Черных Е.Н., Федеряев О.В., Димаки А.В., Тирских Д.С. Влияние виброимпульсных воздействий на активность смещений в трещинах горного массива // Физическая мезомеханика. 2007. Т. 10. № 1. С. 19–24.Ruzhich V.V., Psakhie S.G., Chernykh E.N., Federyaev O.V., Dimaki A.V., Tirskikh D.S., 2007. Effect of Vibropulse Action on the Intensity of Displacements in Rock Cracks. Physical Mesomechanics 10 (1), 19–24 (in Russian).Ружич В.В., Вахромеев А.Г., Левина Е.А., Сверкунов С.А., Шилько Е.В. Об управлении режимами сейсмической активности в сегментах тектонических разломов с применением вибрационных воздействий и закачки растворов через скважины // Физическая мезомеханика. 2020. Т. 23. № 3. С. 54–69.Ruzhich V.V., Vakhromeev A.G., Levina E.A., Sverkunov S.A., Shilko E.V., 2020. Seismic Activity Control in Tectonic Fault Zones Using Vibrations and Deep Well Fluid Injection. Physical Mesomechanics 23 (3), 54–69 (in Russian).Салко Д.В., Борняков С.А. Автоматизированная система для мониторинга геофизических параметров на геодинамических полигонах // Приборы. 2014. № 6. С. 24–28.Salko D.V., Bornyakov S.A., 2014. The Automated Tool System for Monitoring of Geophysical Parametres on Geodynamic Polygons. Pribory 6, 24–28 (in Russian).Sankov V.A., Lukhnev A.V., Miroshnitchenko A.I., Dobrynina A.A., Ashurkov S.V., Byzov L.M., Dembelov M.G., Calais E., Déverchère J., 2014. Contemporary Horizontal Movements and Seismicity of the South Baikal Basin (Baikal Rift System). Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth 50, 785–794. https://doi.org/10.1134/S106935131406007X.Sankov V.A., Lukhnev A.V., Miroshnitchenko A.I., Dobrynina A.A., Ashurkov S.V., Byzov L.M., Dembelov M.G., Calais E., Déverchère J., 2014. Contemporary Horizontal Movements and Seismicity of the South Baikal Basin (Baikal Rift System). Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth 50, 785–794. https://doi.org/10.1134/S106935131406007X.Savransky D., 2004. Lomb (Lomb-Scargle) Periodogram. Mathlab Central. Available from: https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/20004-lomb-lomb-scargle-periodogram (Last Accessed October 15, 2021).Savransky D., 2004. Lomb (Lomb-Scargle) Periodogram. Mathlab Central. Available from: https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/20004-lomb-lomb-scargle-periodogram (Last Accessed October 15, 2021).Scargle J.D., 1982. Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. II – Statistical Aspects of Spectral Analysis of Unevenly Spaced Data. The Astrophysical Journal 263, 835–853. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/160554.Scargle J.D., 1982. Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. II – Statistical Aspects of Spectral Analysis of Unevenly Spaced Data. The Astrophysical Journal 263, 835–853. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/160554.Scargle J.D., 1989. Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. III – Fourier Transforms. Autocorrelation Function and Cross-Correlation Functions of Unevenly Spaced Data. The Astrophysical Journal 343, 874–887. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/167757.Scargle J.D., 1989. Studies in Astronomical Time Series Analysis. III – Fourier Transforms. Autocorrelation Function and Cross-Correlation Functions of Unevenly Spaced Data. The Astrophysical Journal 343, 874–887. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/167757.Seminsky K.Zh., Bornyakov S.A., Dobrynina A.A., Radziminovich N.A., Rasskazov S.V., Sankov V.A., Mialle P., Bobrov A.A. et al., 2021. The Bystrinskoe Earthquake in the Southern Baikal Region (21 September, 2020, Mw=5.4): Main Parameters, Precursors, and Accompanying Effects. Russian Geology and Geophysics 62 (5), 589–603. https://doi.org/10.2113/RGG20204296.Seminsky K.Zh., Bornyakov S.A., Dobrynina A.A., Radziminovich N.A., Rasskazov S.V., Sankov V.A., Mialle P., Bobrov A.A. et al., 2021. The Bystrinskoe Earthquake in the Southern Baikal Region (21 September, 2020, Mw=5.4): Main Parameters, Precursors, and Accompanying Effects. Russian Geology and Geophysics 62 (5), 589–603. https://doi.org/10.2113/RGG20204296.Sun W.F., Peng Z., Lin C.H., Chao K., 2015. Detecting Deep Tectonic Tremor in Taiwan with a Dense Array. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105 (3), 1349–1358. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140258.Sun W.F., Peng Z., Lin C.H., Chao K., 2015. Detecting Deep Tectonic Tremor in Taiwan with a Dense Array. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 105 (3), 1349–1358. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120140258.Тимофеев В.Ю. Приливные и медленные деформации земной коры юга Сибири по экспериментальным данным: Автореф. дис. … докт. физ.-мат. наук. Новосибирск, 2004. 36 с..Timofeev V.Yu., 2004. Tidal and Slow Deformations of the Earth’s Crust in Southern Siberia According to Experimental Data. Brief PhD Thesis (Doctor of Physics and Mathematics). Novosibirsk, 36 p. (in Russian).Timofeev V.Yu., Sarycheva Yu.K., Panin S.F., Anisimova L.V., Gridnev D.G., Masalskii O.K., 1994. Investigation of Earth Surface Tilts and Strains in the Baikal Rift Zone (Talaya Station). Russian Geology and Geophysics 35 (3), 101–110.Timofeev V.Yu., Sarycheva Yu.K., Panin S.F., Anisimova L.V., Gridnev D.G., Masalskii O.K., 1994. Investigation of Earth Surface Tilts and Strains in the Baikal Rift Zone (Talaya Station). Russian Geology and Geophysics 35 (3), 101–110.Velde B., Dubois J., Touchard G., Badri A., 1990. Fractal Analysis of Fractures in Rocks: The Cantor’s Dust Method. Tectonophysics 179 (3–4), 345–352. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(90)90300-W.Velde B., Dubois J., Touchard G., Badri A., 1990. Fractal Analysis of Fractures in Rocks: The Cantor’s Dust Method. Tectonophysics 179 (3–4), 345–352. https://doi.org/10.1016/0040-1951(90)90300-W.Vstovsky G.V., 2006. Factual Revelation of Correlation Lengths Hierarchy in Micro- and Nanostructures by Scanning Probe Microscopy Data. Materials Science 12 (3), 262–270.Vstovsky G.V., 2006. Factual Revelation of Correlation Lengths Hierarchy in Micro- and Nanostructures by Scanning Probe Microscopy Data. Materials Science 12 (3), 262–270.Встовский Г.В. Выявление пространственных и временных иерархических структур в сложных системах // Флуктуации и шумы в сложных системах живой и неживой природы / Ред. Р.М. Юльметьев, А.В. Мокшин, С.А. Дёмин, М.Х. Салахов. Казань: Школа, 2008. С. 441–454.Vstovsky G.V., 2008. Identification of Spatial and Temporal Hierarchical Structures in Complex Systems. In: R.M. Yulmetiev, A.V. Mokshin, S.A. Demin, M.Kh. Salakhov (Eds), Fluctuations and Noises in Complex Systems of Animate and Inanimate Nature. Shkola, Kazan, p. 441–454 (in Russian).Vstovsky G.V., Bornyakov S.A., 2010. First Experiences of Seismodeformation Monitoring of Baikal Rift Zone (by the Example of South-Baikal Earthquake of August 27, 2008). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 10 (4), 667–672. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-667-2010.Vstovsky G.V., Bornyakov S.A., 2010. First Experiences of Seismodeformation Monitoring of Baikal Rift Zone (by the Example of South-Baikal Earthquake of August 27, 2008). Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 10 (4), 667–672. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-10-667-2010.Zhuo Y.-Q., Guo Y., Bornyakov S.A., 2019. Laboratory Observations of Repeated Interactions between Ruptures and the Fault Bend Prior to the Overall Stick-Slip Instability Based on Digital Image Correlation Method. Applied Sciences 9 (5), 933. https://doi.org/10.3390/app9050933.Zhuo Y.-Q., Guo Y., Bornyakov S.A., 2019. Laboratory Observations of Repeated Interactions between Ruptures and the Fault Bend Prior to the Overall Stick-Slip Instability Based on Digital Image Correlation Method. Applied Sciences 9 (5), 933. https://doi.org/10.3390/app9050933.Зубарев Д.Н., Морозов В.Г., Рёпке Г. Статистическая механика неравновесных процессов. М.: Физматлит, 2002. Т. 1. 432 с..Zubarev D.N., Morozov V.G., Repke G., 2002. Statistical Mechanics of Nonequilibrium Processes. Vol. 1. Fizmatlit, Moscow, 432 p. (in Russian).

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.