gtcrustГеодинамика и тектонофизикаGeodynamics & Tectonophysics2078-502XInstitute of the Earth's crust of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Siberian Branch10.5800/GT-2022-13-1-0570gtcrust-1422Research ArticleСОВРЕМЕННАЯ ГЕОДИНАМИКАRECENT GEODYNAMICSДОЛГОВРЕМЕННЫЕ ИЗМЕНЕНИЯ ДВИЖЕНИЙ И ДЕФОРМАЦИЙ ЗЕМНОЙ КОРЫ ДО И ВО ВРЕМЯ СЕРИИ ЗЕМЛЕТРЯСЕНИЙ КУМАМОТО (2016 Г., ЯПОНИЯ)LONG-TERM CHANGES IN CRUSTAL MOVEMENTS AND DEFORMATIONS BEFORE AND DURING THE 2016 KUMAMOTO EARTHQUAKE SEQUENCEКафтанВ. И.KaftanV. I.

119296, Москва, ул. Молодежная, 3

Vladimir I. Kaftan

3 Molodezhnaya St, Moscow 119296

kaftan@geod.ruТатариновВ. Н.TatarinovV. N.

119296, Москва, ул. Молодежная, 3

3 Molodezhnaya St, Moscow 119296

ШевчукР. В.ShevchukR. V.

119296, Москва, ул. Молодежная, 3

3 Molodezhnaya St, Moscow 119296

Геофизический центр РАНРоссияGeophysical Center of the Russian Academy of SciencesRussian Federation202222032022131570570Copyright © Кафтан В.И., Татаринов В.Н., Шевчук Р.В., 20222022Кафтан В.И., Татаринов В.Н., Шевчук Р.В.Kaftan V.I., Tatarinov V.N., Shevchuk R.V.Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.https://www.gt-crust.ru/jour/article/view/1422

На острове Кюсю, как и на всем Японском архипелаге, функционирует густая перманентная сеть GPS (GEONET), которая позволяет отслеживать движения и деформации земной поверхности на многолетних временных интервалах. В настоящем исследовании по суточным определениям координат станций GPS анализируются долгопериодические тенденции накопления движений и деформаций на значительной территории о-ва Кюсю перед серией землетрясений Кумамото (14–16 апреля 2016 г.) с целью выявления деформационных предвестников и поиска неподвижных «запертых» зон разломов. Для изучения сейсмодеформационного процесса использованы данные непрерывных GPS-наблюдений 70 непрерывнодействующих станций за период 2009–2016 гг.

Выявленные особенности движений и деформаций характеризуют кинематику осевой зоны юго-западной части островной дуги Японского архипелага. Сочетание косейсмических сжатия и подъема в центре образованной триады экстремумов деформации и согласованность опусканий с растяжениями на ее краях демонстрируют механизм роста центральной области островной дуги в условиях сжатия и роль вулканизма. Наибольший интерес в отношении развития движений и деформаций в процессе подготовки землетрясений Кумамото представляет поведение минимальных модулей смещений пунктов глобальных навигационных спутниковых систем (ГНСС). Анализ их кинематики показывает образование области минимальных смещений, в которой были локализованы последующие сильные сейсмические события. Показано, что достаточно плотные и обширные сети ГНСС станций позволяют наблюдать и изучать сейсмодеформационный процесс на стадиях сейсмической подготовки, разрядки и релаксации, представляя тем самым эмпирическую основу для разработки моделей прогнозирования крупных и сильных сейсмических событий.

The Kyushu Island, as well as whole Japanese archipelago, is equipped with dense GPS network (GEONET). It allows us to track the movements and deformations of the earth’s surface over long-term time intervals. In this study, based on daily determinations of the coordinates of GPS stations, analysis has been made on long-term trends in the accumulation of movements and deformations in large areas of the Kyushu Island before the series of April 14–16, 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes to identify deformation precursors and locked, immobile fault zones. The study of the seismic deformation process was performed using the data from 70 continuous permanent GPS stations for the period 2009–2016.

The movement and deformation features found characterize the kinematics of the axial zone of the southwestern part of the island arc of the Japanese archipelago. The combination of coseismic compression and uplift in the center of the formed triad of deformation extrema and the consistency between subsidence and extensions at its edges demonstrate the mechanism of growth of the central region of the island arc under compression and the role of volcanism. Of particular interest in the context of the development of movements and deformations during the generation of the Kumamoto earthquakes is the behavior of the minimum displacement moduli of the GNSS sites. Analysis of their kinematics shows the formation of a zone of minimum displacements, in which subsequent strong seismic events were localized. It is shown that rather dense and extensive GNSS networks allow observing and studying the seismic-deformation process at the stages of seismic generation, discharge and relaxation, thereby providing an empirical basis for the development of models for predicting large seismic events.

деформация земной поверхностиGPSзапирание разломадефицит смещенияпрогноз землетрясенийearth’s surface deformationGPSfault lockingslip deficitearthquake predictionРабота выполнена в рамках государственного задания Геофизического центра РАН, утвержденного Минобрнауки РФ.This work was conducted in the framework of budgetary funding for the Geophysical Center of RAS, approved by the Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation.ReferencesActive Fault Database of Japan, 2021. Available from: https://gbank.gsj.jp/activefault/index (Last Accessed December 14, 2021).Active Fault Database of Japan, 2021. Available from: https://gbank.gsj.jp/activefault/index (Last Accessed December 14, 2021).Benz H., 2017. Building a National Seismic Monitoring Center: NEIC from 2000 to the Present. Seismological Research Letters 88 (2B), 457–461. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220170034.Benz H., 2017. Building a National Seismic Monitoring Center: NEIC from 2000 to the Present. Seismological Research Letters 88 (2B), 457–461. https://doi.org/10.1785/0220170034.Blewitt G., Hammond W.C., Kreemer C., 2018. Harnessing the GPS Data Explosion for Inter-Disciplinary Science. Eos 99. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EO104623.Blewitt G., Hammond W.C., Kreemer C., 2018. Harnessing the GPS Data Explosion for Inter-Disciplinary Science. Eos 99. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018EO104623.Dahmen N., Hohensinn R., Clinton J., 2020. Comparison and Combination of GNSS and Strong-Motion Observations: A Case Study of the 2016 Mw 7.0 Kumamoto Earthquake. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 110 (6), 2647–2660. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120200135.Dahmen N., Hohensinn R., Clinton J., 2020. Comparison and Combination of GNSS and Strong-Motion Observations: A Case Study of the 2016 Mw 7.0 Kumamoto Earthquake. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 110 (6), 2647–2660. https://doi.org/10.1785/0120200135.Global Volcanism Program, 2021. Available from: https://volcano.si.edu/ (Last Accessed December 14, 2021).Global Volcanism Program, 2021. Available from: https://volcano.si.edu/ (Last Accessed December 14, 2021).GSJ Volcanic Hazards Assessment Support System, 2021. http://g-ever1.org/quick/index_en.html (Last Accessed September 14, 2021).GSJ Volcanic Hazards Assessment Support System, 2021. http://g-ever1.org/quick/index_en.html (Last Accessed September 14, 2021).He P., Wen Y., Xu C., Chen Y., 2019. Complete Three-Dimensional Near-Field Surface Displacements from Imaging Geodesy Techniques Applied to the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake. Remote Sensing of Environment 232, 111321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.111321.He P., Wen Y., Xu C., Chen Y., 2019. Complete Three-Dimensional Near-Field Surface Displacements from Imaging Geodesy Techniques Applied to the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake. Remote Sensing of Environment 232, 111321. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2019.111321.Jiang G., Xu X., Chen G., Liu Y., Fukahata Y., Wang H., Yu G., Tan X., Xu C., 2015. Geodetic Imaging of Potential Seismogenic Asperities on the Xianshuihe-Anninghe-Zemuhe Fault System, Southwest China, with a New 3-D Viscoelastic Interseismic Coupling Model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 120 (3), 1855–1873. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JB011492.Jiang G., Xu X., Chen G., Liu Y., Fukahata Y., Wang H., Yu G., Tan X., Xu C., 2015. Geodetic Imaging of Potential Seismogenic Asperities on the Xianshuihe-Anninghe-Zemuhe Fault System, Southwest China, with a New 3-D Viscoelastic Interseismic Coupling Model. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 120 (3), 1855–1873. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JB011492.Johnston G., Riddell A., Hausler G., 2017. The International GNSS Service. In: P.J. Teunissen, O. Montenbruck (Eds), Springer Handbook of Global Navigation Satellite Systems. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, p. 967–982. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-42928-1_33.Johnston G., Riddell A., Hausler G., 2017. The International GNSS Service. In: P.J. Teunissen, O. Montenbruck (Eds), Springer Handbook of Global Navigation Satellite Systems. Springer-Verlag, Berlin, Heidelberg, p. 967–982. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-42928-1_33.Kaftan V.I., 2021. An Analysis of Ground Movements and Deformations from 13-year GPS Observations before and during the July 2019 Ridgecrest, USA Earthquakes. Journal of Volcanology and Seismology 15 (2), 97–106. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0742046321010115.Kaftan V.I., 2021. An Analysis of Ground Movements and Deformations from 13-year GPS Observations before and during the July 2019 Ridgecrest, USA Earthquakes. Journal of Volcanology and Seismology 15 (2), 97–106. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0742046321010115.Kaftan V.I., Kaftan I., Gök E., 2021. Crustal Movements and Deformations in Eastern Turkey in Connection with the Van Earthquake (October 23, 2011, Mw=7.2): Study from GPS Data. Izvestia, Physics of the Solid Earth 57 (3), 30–44. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351321030071.Kaftan V.I., Kaftan I., Gök E., 2021. Crustal Movements and Deformations in Eastern Turkey in Connection with the Van Earthquake (October 23, 2011, Mw=7.2): Study from GPS Data. Izvestia, Physics of the Solid Earth 57 (3), 30–44. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351321030071.Kaftan V., Melnikov A., 2017. Local Deformation Precursors of Large Earthquakes Derived from GNSS Observation Data. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 95 (3), 032030. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/95/3/032030.Kaftan V., Melnikov A., 2017. Local Deformation Precursors of Large Earthquakes Derived from GNSS Observation Data. IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science 95 (3), 032030. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/95/3/032030.Kaftan V.I., Melnikov A.Yu., 2018. Revealing the Deformational Anomalies Based on GNSS Data in Relation to the Preparation and Stress Release of Large Earthquakes. Izvestia, Physics of the Solid Earth 54, 22–32. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351318010093.Kaftan V.I., Melnikov A.Yu., 2018. Revealing the Deformational Anomalies Based on GNSS Data in Relation to the Preparation and Stress Release of Large Earthquakes. Izvestia, Physics of the Solid Earth 54, 22–32. https://doi.org/10.1134/S1069351318010093.Kaftan V., Melnikov A., 2019. Migration of Earth Surface Deformation as a Large Earthquake Trigger. In: G. Kocharyan, A. Lyakhov (Eds), Trigger Effects in Geosystems. Springer Proceedings in Earth and Environmental Sciences. Springer, Cham, p. 71–78. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-31970-0_8.Kaftan V., Melnikov A., 2019. Migration of Earth Surface Deformation as a Large Earthquake Trigger. In: G. Kocharyan, A. Lyakhov (Eds), Trigger Effects in Geosystems. Springer Proceedings in Earth and Environmental Sciences. Springer, Cham, p. 71–78. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-31970-0_8.Kaftan V., Rodkin M., 2019. Earth’s Surface Deformation on Mount Etna: GPS Measurements, Interpretation, Relationship to the Mode of Volcanism. Journal of Volcanology and Seismology 13, 7–16. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0742046319010032.Kaftan V., Rodkin M., 2019. Earth’s Surface Deformation on Mount Etna: GPS Measurements, Interpretation, Relationship to the Mode of Volcanism. Journal of Volcanology and Seismology 13, 7–16. https://doi.org/10.1134/S0742046319010032.Kaftan V., Shevchuk R., 2021. Massing of the Shear Deficit over the Seven Years before the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Series: Video. February 2021. http://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.26662.65607.Kaftan V., Shevchuk R., 2021. Massing of the Shear Deficit over the Seven Years before the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Series: Video. February 2021. http://doi.org/10.13140/RG.2.2.26662.65607.Kato A., Nakamura K., Hiyama Y., 2016. The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Sequence. Proceedings of the Japan Academy 92 (8), 358–371. https://doi.org/10.2183/pjab.92.359.Kato A., Nakamura K., Hiyama Y., 2016. The 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Sequence. Proceedings of the Japan Academy 92 (8), 358–371. https://doi.org/10.2183/pjab.92.359.Kawamoto S., Hiyama Y., Ohta Y., Nishimura T., 2016. First Result from the GEONET Real-Timeanalysis System (REGARD): The Case of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes. Earth, Planets and Space 68, 190. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-016-0564-4.Kawamoto S., Hiyama Y., Ohta Y., Nishimura T., 2016. First Result from the GEONET Real-Timeanalysis System (REGARD): The Case of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquakes. Earth, Planets and Space 68, 190. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40623-016-0564-4.Kubodera T., Suzuki T., Masaharu H., Matsuo E., 2017. Analysis on Surface Deformation and Cracks in Paddy Fields by 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Using GNSS and Photogrammetry. International Journal of Environmental and Rural Development 8 (1), 85–92. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-143-2017.Kubodera T., Suzuki T., Masaharu H., Matsuo E., 2017. Analysis on Surface Deformation and Cracks in Paddy Fields by 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake Using GNSS and Photogrammetry. International Journal of Environmental and Rural Development 8 (1), 85–92. https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-17-143-2017.Moore J., Yu H., Tang C., Wang T., Barbot S., Peng D., Masuti S., Dauwels J. et al., 2017. Imaging the Distribution of Transient Viscosity after the 2016 Mw 7.1 Kumamoto Earthquake. Science 356 (6334), 163–167. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aal3422.Moore J., Yu H., Tang C., Wang T., Barbot S., Peng D., Masuti S., Dauwels J. et al., 2017. Imaging the Distribution of Transient Viscosity after the 2016 Mw 7.1 Kumamoto Earthquake. Science 356 (6334), 163–167. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.aal3422.Nakajima J., Hasegawa A., 2007. Subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate beneath Southwestern Japan: Slab Geometry and Its Relationship to Arc Magmatism. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 112 (B8). https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JB004770.Nakajima J., Hasegawa A., 2007. Subduction of the Philippine Sea Plate beneath Southwestern Japan: Slab Geometry and Its Relationship to Arc Magmatism. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 112 (B8). https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JB004770.Pevnev A.K., 1988. Earthquake Prediction: Geodetic Aspects of the Problem. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth 12, 88–98.Pevnev A.K., 1988. Earthquake Prediction: Geodetic Aspects of the Problem. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth 12, 88–98.Pevnev A.K., 1989. Deterministic Geodetic Prediction of Preparation Areas of Strong Crustal Earthquakes. Earthquake Prediction 11, 11–23.Pevnev A.K., 1989. Deterministic Geodetic Prediction of Preparation Areas of Strong Crustal Earthquakes. Earthquake Prediction 11, 11–23.Reid H.F., 1911. The Elastic-Rebound Theory of Earthquakes. Bulletin of the Department of Geology 6, 413–444.Reid H.F., 1911. The Elastic-Rebound Theory of Earthquakes. Bulletin of the Department of Geology 6, 413–444.Riznichenko Yu.V., 1992. Problems of Seismology: Selected Papers. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, p. 445.Riznichenko Yu.V., 1992. Problems of Seismology: Selected Papers. Springer, Berlin, Heidelberg, p. 445.Sagiya T., 2004. A Decade of GEONET: 1994–2003. The Continuous GPS Observation in Japan and Its Impact on Earthquake Studies. Earth Planets Space 56 (8), XXIX–XLI. https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03353077.Sagiya T., 2004. A Decade of GEONET: 1994–2003. The Continuous GPS Observation in Japan and Its Impact on Earthquake Studies. Earth Planets Space 56 (8), XXIX–XLI. https://doi.org/10.1186/BF03353077.Tanaka Y., Ohta Y., Miyazaki S., 2019. Real‐Time Coseismic Slip Estimation via the GNSS Carrier Phase to Fault Slip Approach: A Case Study of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake. Geophysical Research Letters 46 (3), 1367–1374. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080741.Tanaka Y., Ohta Y., Miyazaki S., 2019. Real‐Time Coseismic Slip Estimation via the GNSS Carrier Phase to Fault Slip Approach: A Case Study of the 2016 Kumamoto Earthquake. Geophysical Research Letters 46 (3), 1367–1374. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080741.Wang K., Zhu Y., Nissen E., Shen Z.-K., 2021. On the Relevance of Geodetic Deformation Rates to Earthquake Potential. Geophysical Research Letters 48 (11), e2021GL093231. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093231.Wang K., Zhu Y., Nissen E., Shen Z.-K., 2021. On the Relevance of Geodetic Deformation Rates to Earthquake Potential. Geophysical Research Letters 48 (11), e2021GL093231. https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093231.Wu J.C., Tang H.W., Chen Y.Q., Li Y.X., 2006. The Current Strain Distribution in the North China Basin of Eastern China by Least-Squares Collocation. Journal of Geodynamics 41 (5), 462–470. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jog.2006.01.003.Wu J.C., Tang H.W., Chen Y.Q., Li Y.X., 2006. The Current Strain Distribution in the North China Basin of Eastern China by Least-Squares Collocation. Journal of Geodynamics 41 (5), 462–470. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jog.2006.01.003.Yamagiwa S., Miyazaki S., Hirahara K., Fukahata Y., 2015. Afterslip and Viscoelastic Relaxation Following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake (Mw9.0) Inferred from Inland GPS and Seafloor GPS/Acoustic Data. Geophysical Research Letters 42 (1), 66–73. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061735.Yamagiwa S., Miyazaki S., Hirahara K., Fukahata Y., 2015. Afterslip and Viscoelastic Relaxation Following the 2011 Tohoku-Oki Earthquake (Mw9.0) Inferred from Inland GPS and Seafloor GPS/Acoustic Data. Geophysical Research Letters 42 (1), 66–73. https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL061735.Yang Y., Qin X., 2021. Resilient Observation Models for Seafloor Geodetic Positioning. Journal of Geodesy 95, 79. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-021-01531-7.Yang Y., Qin X., 2021. Resilient Observation Models for Seafloor Geodetic Positioning. Journal of Geodesy 95, 79. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00190-021-01531-7.Zang S.X., Chen Q.Y., Ning J.Y., Shen Z.K., Liu Y.G., 2002. Motion of the Philippine Sea Plate Consistent with the NUVEL-1A Model. Geophysical Journal International 150 (3), 809–819. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246X.2002.01744.x.Zang S.X., Chen Q.Y., Ning J.Y., Shen Z.K., Liu Y.G., 2002. Motion of the Philippine Sea Plate Consistent with the NUVEL-1A Model. Geophysical Journal International 150 (3), 809–819. https://doi.org/10.1046/j.1365-246X.2002.01744.x.

The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest present.